Equinties - George needs more, Fact

Gm Equinauts

Dear Santa,

All we wish for this Christmas is world peace, an end to poverty and for some Irish horses to turn up in the King George.

Thank you.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

POO OR BUST

After being declared a non-runner in last week’s Morgiana Hurdle, Willie Mullins has confirmed that the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle is the plan for LOSSIEMOUTH.

That means LOSSIEMOUTH vs TEAHUPOO is ON!

The reigning champion, who has been targeted to the race, is set to take on LOSSIEMOUTH over 2m4f on potentially softening ground at Fairyhouse.

That seems like a fairly level playing field between the pair, and that’s represented in the market currently with TEAUHPOO the 10/11 favourite ahead of LOSSIEMOUTH who’s 11/10.

As you well know, we don’t do Sunday newsletters and this race, as well as the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices’ Chase, is occurring on Sunday.

We’ll decide whether to preview the Drinmore later this week, but we may as well have an opinion on LOSSIEMOUTH vs TEAHPOO.

TEAHUPOO, the defending champion, beat IMPAIRE ET PASSE last year when it looked as if Willie Mullins’ Ballymore winner was galloping all over him.

IMPAIRE ET PASSE went on to finish second to STATE MAN before winning a Grade 1 and 2 at the end of the season.

ASHROE DIAMOND, ZANAHIYR, and BUDDY ONE were all in behind as well to frank the form.

Can he give 7lbs away to the mare though?

On RPRs, his best performance was 166 in this race last year and LOSSIEMOUTH’s best effort came in the Mares’ Hurdle when running to 156, so she might need to find a few pounds on paper figures.

And look, we are not crabbing her Mares’ Hurdle win at all. It was classy and really showed her ability but, the horses in behind like LANGTRY LADY and HISPANIC MOON have yet to prove just how good they are. TELMESOMETHINGGIRL, the second, was also well beaten by JETARA and ZARAK THE BRAVE on her previous two starts before Cheltenham.

Furthermore, Rich Ricci isn’t so sure about how truly well she stays the trip, especially if this turns into a gruelling 2m4f.

It may only be four runners maximum, but if these two show up, it’s going to be a fascinating contest.

KING GEORGE UPDATE

Well, we’ve been quite hot on the topic of the King George recently because it is the big race of Christmas and will be sandwiched in your diary between a Christmas dinner and National Lampoons Christmas Vacation.

We were quite cynical about the contest yesterday because it doesn’t, on paper, look like a great renewal, but in the benefit of fairness, there were a few updates released yesterday that are worth noting.

Firstly, having not been entered in the first place, Willie Mullins is considering running FACT TO FILE at Kempton.

Smart. He’s shown his well-being around right-handed tracks, he has all the good form in the book, he’s unexposed, and, honestly, he would win if he turned up.

That final point is key. Mullins said he was keen to chase down a second British trainers’ title at the end of the last season, so if he could rock up to Kempton on Boxing Day and bag £142,375, that would start to put him straight back into the running.

Currently, Mr. W. P. Mullins sits in 122nd with £27,096 to his name. That is a long way off the table topper Dan Skelton (£1,190,615), but if, hypothetically, he was to win the King George today, he would move up to 29th.

Furthermore, he won last year’s title without a King George to his name, and we all know the main prize money comes from the spring Festivals anyway.

Speaking of Skelton, he gave us a bit more of an update on GREY DAWNING, who was maybe going to miss the race, and his Ryanair winner PROTEKTORAT.

He said: “I've left in both of them. It's my intention to take it up to the 11th hour. I want to run one – or two. I'm very surprised at how well Grey Dawning came out of the Betfair Chase. I thought he'd be very tired. I was really surprised with how he was on Sunday morning and since then.

“I've left in Protektorat because he's high class and it might be worth a look. I've always wanted to go to the Peterborough Chase with Protektorat as that's over his more correct trip, but there's a £250,000 King George there and I'll be doing my best to compete in it. I couldn't say for certain that Grey Dawning is going to run but we'll be doing our utmost.”

If these three horses line up next month, we may well get a nice little contest.

TWO MILES

Two horses that Willie Mullins will run this season are set to be targeted over two miles, though many people have argued for them to be stepped up in trip.

The first comes with GAELIC WARRIOR. His lack of presence in the King George next month has been well-documented, and it seems like this decision has confined him to the minimum distance for the rest of the season.

Mullins said: "Gaelic Warrior will run over two miles at Christmas and then at the Dublin Racing Festival I'd imagine, or we could look at the Clarence House as going right-handed around Ascot would suit him.

"But more than likely he'll go to Leopardstown twice and then the Champion Chase. We took him out of the King George as I wasn't going to run him over three miles on his first run of the season. If he'd run in the John Durkan, we would have looked at the King George."

With the potential inclusion of EL FABIOLO (who could be one for the Ryanair) and the two-time Champion Chase winner ENERGUMENE in the Queen Mother, Mullins certainly has another strong team.

It does pose a question, however. Why is GAELIC WARRIOR, a three-mile novice hurdle winner, going for the Champion Chase when they have EL FABIOLO, an Irish and English Arkle winner? Interesting and you know what? We really don’t care because it’s stupid to try and guess the Wizards next move.

The other horse who could be campaigned over two miles this year, despite all the Racing X chat, is BALLYBURN.

We said he could be an Arkle runner before his chase debut, and while his chase debut was fine over 2m3f, it didn’t actually scream ‘Arkle winner’.

However, the two-mile novice chase division is where he’ll be campaigned, as Mullins said: "Leopardstown at Christmas would have been the obvious step for him, but there's no race for him there now. If he goes to Naas he probably won't go to the Dublin Racing Festival.

"The Racing Post Novice Chase was a fantastic race and fitted lovely in the calendar. Now the horses will probably miss out on the Dublin Racing Festival, as if they go to Naas it comes too soon.

"We'll probably have to go to England or miss the Dublin Racing Festival with the top ones so Irish racing will lose out.

"Two-milers went to Leopardstown while two-and-a-half or three-milers went to Limerick, and I didn't think there was an imbalance, but there will be now.”

So, with a bit of a dig at the Irish race programme fitted in between, it looks like the new two-mile Grade 2 novice chase at Naas on January 5th or a trip to England (for maybe the Wayward Lad, we assume) could be his next step.

Is he your idea of an Arkle winner? His next test will certainly tell a lot.

RISK ON

No stand out bets, but we have a mega bet coming Saturday. As a smaller stake, speccy play we like:

13.00 MELINDA

Not the most obvious choice in this race given last years winning yard also train the short priced fave, but we think on pedigree MELINDA could be best. More, she gets a fillies allowance and5 taken off by Alan Doyle. 7/1 is a speccy but good ew in a terrible race full of horses who aren’t bred for jumps

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