Equinties - FRANKIE'S BACK

Gm Equinauts

One more sleep until we’re staying up late, sinking beers and gambling the Breeders Cup.

We will be sending out FULL Breeders Cup previews to our Weekender subscribers, hit the link at the bottom to get it!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

NOT VIA MELBOURNE

VIA SISTINA has always been special.

From winning the 2023 Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh to chasing home KING OF STEEL in the Champion Stakes, she was very classy over in the UK for George Boughey. In fact, she’s so special, she even trains herself now:

Despite unshipping James McDonald from the saddle and running multiple laps of the Valley, she put in a breath-taking performance to win the $3 million Group 1 contest on Saturday.

A lot, and we mean a lot, of people wanted her to run in the Melbourne Cup on November 1st, but she is going to swerve the race that stops a nation and instead head to the Group 1 Champion Stakes.

This is a shame. Connections had nothing to lose in running her (despite not knowing if she would stay) and the race has already been under the microscope this week.

“The big carrot that the boss (Mr Zhang) ultimately wants to win one day is the Melbourne Cup,” Sam Fairgray of Yu Long Investments, the owner, told racenet.com.au. “He would love to win it. But at the end of the day, the horse comes first.

“Everything was considered and the decision was made that the best thing for her was not to run (in the Cup). It was never in our early calculations, so hopefully she can now go to the Champions (Stakes).

It’s looking more and more like a race for Willie Mullins’ taking now!

HERE’S FRANKIE

Guess who’s back, back again. Frankie’s back, tell a friend.

That’s right, John Gosden and Frankie Dettori are back together, and EMILY UPJOHN is the horse that has partnered up the pair again.

We did a piece on EMILY UPJOHN recently where we said that she is likely to head to the Filly & Mare Stakes, however, the Breeders’ Cup Turf is the race that will have her presence.

1m4f on fast ground are conditions that the SEA THE STARS five-year-old has experienced before, notably in the 2023 Group 1 Coronation Cup when beating the subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runner-up WESTOVER and the subsequent Group 1 Prix de Saint-Cloud third POINT LONSDALE.

As for this season, her two races when behind BLUESTOCKING would also suggest that her form this year has been up to scratch.

And now, rather than having Kieran Shoemark in the saddle, Lanfranco will partner her in what is a huge race for her season. Win and connections can happily say she is still in love with the game, but lose and her owners will be having some tough conversations with John & Thady Gosden.

On the reason for running her in the Turf, John Gosden said: “We're running in the Turf because she wants a mile and a half. A mile and a half round here is like running a mile two and a half in Europe. It’s sharp, it’s quick, it’s fast ground, three bends, short straights, so she needs every inch.

"Her form is solid. There’s no harm taking on the colts, but it was more the configuration of the track and the distance that made Frankie and I want to run her in the mile and a half."

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/festivals/breeders-cup/john-gosden-if-city-of-troy-gets-a-clear-run-i-doubt-theyd-catch-him-i-think-hed-outclass-them-alhtZ1y78pZ3/ 

AN ANTE-POST GAMBLE

Two days ago, we got the early entries for the Greatwood Hurdle, Paddy Power Gold Cup, and Coral Gold Cup.

Markets have formulated and opinions have already been taken, but we have a few points to highlight before you decide to dive into the races.

Firstly, do we have any TRELAWNE fans reading? He is well-found in the market for the Coral Gold Cup (14/1) and he’d have to have a chance off 144 considering Kim Bailey couldn’t split him and CHIANTI CLASSICO ahead of the Ultima.

He is entered for the Colin Parker at Carlise on Sunday which looks like an ideal prep for Newbury’s feature race in late November.

However, Mat Nicholls, assistant trainer to Kim Bailey, recently said on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast that he may not run on the weekend if the ground is too quick (it’s currently good to soft).

If he misses this weekend, he could well go for the graduation chase at Haydock, a race won by GREY DAWNING last year, and that would put away his chance of a Coral Gold Cup appearance. Hold your bets.

The second point to note is the ante-post gamble for IMAGINE in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at next month’s Cheltenham November Meeting.

Harry Derham’s ex-Gordon Elliott import crashed into 8/1 from 20/1 on Sunday after comments made by Derham to the press pack at Prestbury Park.

What to make of the horse?

Well, he has a rating of 145 having won the Grade 2 Craddockstown Novice Chase in November 2023, and on pure form, he beat the subsequent Grade 1 winner INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN on seasonal debut.

We all know that Gavin Cromwell’s Kim Muir winner wasn’t trying that day, so the form has to be taken with a pinch of salt, and he hasn’t been seen on the track since January 14th.

To win a Paddy Power off a 307-day break would be quite insane, and the form of the horses he has beaten over fences that were actually trying isn’t too convincing.

We certainly aren’t jumping on him.

It’s early, but you wouldn’t go too far wrong with IL RIDOTO at 14/1. He was second in the December Gold Cup off 143 and he placed in a similar handicap chase at Cheltenham off 148 on Trials Day. He has a rating of 138 now and will benefit from his run at Chepstow last month, especially on his second run after a wind-op.

BUMPERS

STRATFORD

CRYSTABEL ran second in a bad junior bumper lto. She’s by new sire CRUSTAL OCEAN and has a stamina pedigree making her the right favourite for this race but beatable.

OCEAN SKY is short in the market given she’s by a sprint sire. It’ a weird pedigree because the dam was running over 6f too but has produced a bumper winner! We can’t read this one but would be inclined to think he she won’t stay (now watch her bolt up!)

QUEENS THEATRE has bumper winners in the immediate family. Her sire GENTLEWAVE like the mud so if todays going is more soft than good, she’ll relish it.

GIRL OF GOLD is trained by Derham who is in mixed form - most of his over-bet shorties are getting beat. This girl is related to flat winners including flat and jumps winner CUBOMANIA who was rated in the 140’s over jumps. One of the better pedigree’s in this race by GOLDEN HORN who love these trips.

RIDE LIKE A GIRL is trained by Jamie Snowdon. We backed his LA MARQUISE in this race last year!

Can Jamie win it again? Yes is the answer. He has got a brilliant parents for this sort of race, slightly better than Derham’s nag. The only doubt is that her dam hasn’t produced a winner yet!

CRYSTAL SPRING is another by CRYSTAL OCEAN and is a direct relation to the brilliant SIMONSIG. A relatively cheap purchase when bought in May this year perhaps suggesting she’s a lowly handicapper?

WATAMU is the third and last CRYSTAL OCEAN in this race. The dam is a two time bumper winner but hasn’t produced a winner yet but WOOLBERRY was close having came third for Lavelle in a bumper. A chance!

HIGHBURY HILL, SLACK ALICE, GEALIC CHOIR and MARIAS JOY will all need handicaps we think.

Verdict: We think this is between last year winning trainer Snowden and Derham - the money will be telling and we’re going, so will speak to a few people and see who the bet is, if at all.

BUMPER RESULTS

03/10/24 KAYLAN 2/1 (11/8 SP) - 1st

08/10/24 LAURA LOU 11/1 & PLAYAWAY GIRL 14/1 - 6th & 9th

09/10/24 JOTO 2/1 6th

09/10/24 ID GO MANIAC 5/2 - 4th

12/10/24 MONEYGARROW 5/1 (13/8 SP) - 1st

16/10/24 KINGSLEY 7/1 - 8th

18/10/24 STRONG RUN 5/1 - 2nd

22/10/24 SECRET SNIPER 5/1 - 3rd

23/10/24 THE LONG WALK 100/30 - 3rd

27/10/24 SIOG GEAL 5/2 - 2nd

27/10/24 QUINNS REWARD 9/1 (14/1 SP) - 7th

27/10/24 TENNESSE TANGO 9/1 (12/1 SP) - 1st

28/10/24 ALLSTITCHEDUP 12/1 - 9th

30/10/24 KOSAC D’OUDAIRIES 11/2 (5/2 SP) - 5th

RISK ON

Thank goodness for Norm, again!

We will be punting live from Stratford today and will post our bets on X @equinties.

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