Equinties - Newbury Friday

Gm Equinauts

It’s Friday and Newbury is on - absolutely no way better to kick start the weekend!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

NOT SO GOLIATH SETBACK

There is Group 1 racing to look forward to on the weekend with the Preis von Europa at Cologne, but the race will be without its intended runner GOLIATH as he was ruled out of the race yesterday.

Trainer Francis Graffard has ruled him out due to a foot abscess, but the setback is nothing to be worried about in the long term, so the Japan Cup is still on his agenda.

We’ll defo be setting our alarms for the race because he’s an exciting horse. Here’s what’s he did at Royal Ascot:

On what they will do to prep him for the Japan Cup, Graffard said: "Goliath developed a foot abscess following his last piece of work and as he isn't at 100 per cent we can't take the risk of running in a Group 1.

"We'll see how the horse is, but the Prix du Conseil de Paris [Group 2, October 20, Longchamp] could be an option for him before heading to Japan."

More: https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/germany/king-george-winner-goliath-ruled-out-of-sundays-preis-von-europa-due-to-minor-setback-but-japan-cup-still-the-plan-ayUhA4T6az7M/ 

HORSES TO FOLLOW

The jumps are very much on their way, and as such, people are going around the yards trying to find a few horses to follow.

Both Paul Ferguson and James Stevens do updates on Twitter very well, so let’s pick out a couple that have caught the eye.

Firstly, KNIGHT OF ALLEN won a Chepstow junior national hunt hurdle for Jane Williams having finished second to the interesting Paul Nicholls-trained runner LIARI at Aintree.

Williams has quoted the Challow Novices’ Hurdle for him which is a big race to put eyes on for a relatively unexposed horse. He may not make it to that level, but wherever he goes, he’s one to watch.

Flat horses moving to the jumps has provided plenty of excitement over the last few seasons. BURDETT ROAD instantly springs to mind.

So, with this in mind, it should be worth keeping an eye on the 83-rated Flat horse MY NOBLE LORD who is now with Josh Guerriero and Oliver Greenall. He’s a three-year-old, so one can assume he will be juvenile hurdling.

Finally, the mares’ novices’ hurdle division could be a proper sight this year with the likes of LET IT RAIN, LA MARQUISE, and DIVA LUNA, but ANNO POWER shouldn’t be forgotten.

She has won two bumpers for Harry Fry, notably one at the April meeting at Cheltenham, so she is one to keep a close watch on.

NEWBURY

13.25 MAIDEN STAKES

HAAZEEZ sets a low bar here. He is unreliable given he was well backed on his penultimate start but couldn’t deliver. Fellowes has quite clearly changed things up recently and he’s been cleverly farming the fruits of his labour but we feel we can oppose him here.

BELGRAVE has been backed in to 3’s from 6/1. By HAVANA GREY, he’s more importantly out of a PIVOTAL mare - PIVOTAL is a brilliant dam sire.

SHAMEFUL for Cox (brilliant name) is by new sire SHAMAN and a half to black type winning MY MATE ALFIE. We’re unsure as to what ground he wants as his sire was good in the mud.

Another pedigree to note is MAELSTOM who is by brilliant sire NIGHT OF THUNDER and out of a Group winning mare. Improvement pending.

WICKET KEEPER for Eve is very nice but isn’t fit yet.

Verdict: If we were at the track punting we’d have speccy blood bets on BELGRAVE and MAELSTROM ew.

13.55 MAIDEN STAKES

I MAXIMUS has cost his followers a small fortune recently. Twice heavily gambled and both times lost. It’s quite amusing but he is good and will, at some point, reward those who keep the faith - and that just might be today.

Eve has the next in the market in SPIRIT OF FARHH. He is a half to the yards BOBSLEIGH who was a moderate 2yo winner (we gambled on debut). His debut was on soft and we think that was perhaps why he ran so well then.

FIRE FLAME has a nice enough pedigree being by WOOTTON BASSETT out of a winning mare. Got beat when odds on lto - needs to leave that behind today and improve.

ALMERAQ has a huge pedigree. By gun sire DARK ANGEL, his dam side is laden with brilliant Group horses. By far, the best pedigree in the race. Will he be out to win or given a public schooling? Hard question to answer but Shaggas does love Newbury and he’s come here today with a big team.

The others will be running for marks or not good enough.

Verdict: I MAXIMUS might get his redemption today…but equally might bump into another rocket. On paper only, ALMERAQ ticks the ‘rocket’ boxes and if he doesn’t drift far off his current 7/1 - then we’ll swing with him!

14.24 FILLIES CONDITIONS STAKES

CATHEDRAL was heading the market here but has drifted markedly from 8/13 out to 10/11 for ANNA SWAN to be joint fave.

It’s a two horse race with both the market leaders very impressive on debut but, if you were to use your eyes, CATHEDRAL looked smarter (our opinion) we’ll side with her.

Verdict: CATHEDRAL to win.

14.55 NURSERY HANDICAP

A big race so we’ll mention the horses we think have best chances only.

GREEN ICON has won twice since we mentioned him ahead of his debut. You can’t miss him, he’s bay with a blonde tail - very cool. He sets the standard and is deserved fave. He’ll enjoy the bit of juice in the ground.

ART MARKET is a solid runner for Shaggas who is mob handed today - big day pending. He’ll enjoy the give in the ground (even though he has won on quick) but is quite exposed now. This looks about his mark.

LAKERS got beat lto when heavy odds on - and we’re still not too sure how, Cosgrave looked very weak in the finish. LAKERS is better than that and improvement can be expected today.

MANADANA carries a feather weight. Her form with SHES PERFECT is good and she can run a big race at 12’s.

Hannon always has to be feared at Newbury. No one targets races at the track as well as him and often his horses go in at big, unloved prices. CRISTO is by rocket maker HAVANA GREY meaning CRISTO off bottom weight is dangerous. Plot job? Could be…

Verdict: a muddling nursery with several owning big claims, none more so than the market leader GREEN ICON who we know is on the up. He’d be a dirty ew in this with a speccy big priced swing going on CRISTO for Hannon who is a crafty bugger at this track.

15.30 COLTS & GELDINGS NOVICE STAKES

REGAL ULIXES is strongly fancied by Balding’s lot and is expected to win today. He’ll enjoy a bit of juice in the ground and is a half to the brilliant REGAL REALITY.

Beckett’s FRANKEL is fancied to run well too. He’s clearly a trouble maker as has already been gelded. He is a half to yard star filly BLUESTOCKING. Dangerous.

KING OF CITIES and ECHALAR might only bee seeing the top two’s backsides.

Verdit: Strong win bet on REGAL ULIXES and a forecast with Becket’s DISSIDENT at 4/1.

16.05 LISTED DUBAI DUTY FREE CUP STAKES

This Listed seven-furlong race headlines the card and it’s a race Shaggas targets. ALDAARY was second in it last year and SCARED bolted up for him in 2022. Shaggas also won the race in ‘15 and ‘18.

His LAKE FOREST heads the betting and there’s plenty going for him. From his second in the Commonwealth Cup to the three pounds he gets for being a three-year-old, the standard he sets is good here.

This is a good opportunity to get his first win since last year’s Gimcrack.

NOSTRUM, on his best form, would have a good chance to return to the winners’ enclosure. He was third to the Guineas winner CHALDEAN in the Dewhurst before winning the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes on his first start of last season, beating the solid EMBESTO. That win came when fresh, so this being his first run since late June should benefit him and beating WITCH HUNTER in the Criterion Stakes is solid.

ENGLISH OAK still needs to prove that he is better than a handicapper having dotted up in two handicaps this season. The Buckingham Palace form looks solid, and seven furlongs is his trip, but the lack of good Group form is a worry.

WITNESS STAND is in a similar boat, though he was second to ORNE – the subsequent Sandy Lane runner-up - in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes in 2023. Apart from that, his form is a bit flimsy, but he has been gelded and he was fifth to NOTABLE SPEECH at Kempton on seasonal reappearance.

JUMBY has been a very solid horse for both his connections and our newsletter over the last few years and he was unlucky not to win the Hungerford Stakes two starts ago. He was tried in handicap company nto, but he’s best suited to this class and he has the ability to throw a good run at the age of 6.

The form of DOSMAN has been boosted a few times, notably from when he finished fourth to AMBIENTE FRIENDLY on his debut at Leicester. He was then third at Newmarket two starts later to OMBUDSMAN, a now Group 3 and Listed winner, and ARABIAN LIGHT, a subsequent two-time novice winner.

He gets the weight, but he needs to bounce back from his bad effort in handicap company lto.

Verdict: This is calmer waters for LAKE FOREST who has been mixing it in mostly Group 1’s recently. Owner gambler Tony Bloom and Shaggas have had a good time of it recently, especially at our home track so we shan’t oppose them - we just hope we see a brilliant race.

The last two races are tricky handicaps which we don’t tend to get involved in.

RISK ON

15.30 REGAL ULIXES

Strongly fancied to win today with Becketts lot expecting a good run from theirs too. REGAL ULIXES to win and DISSIDENT to come second. Strong win single and forecast.

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