Equinties - Cheltenham trial 2

Gm Equinauts

The markets are often a reliable precursor to actual events and right now, they’re saying we’re going to see LOSSIEMOUTH take on CONSTITUTION HILL again.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

LEADER IN THE PRESTBURY PARK

Ben Pauling’s recent successes at the Cheltenham Festival include SHAKEM UP’ARRY, who won the Plate last year and GLOBAL CITIZEN who took home the Grand Annual in 2022. Could he have another handicap winner for the Festival this season with a nice improving novice chaser?

THE JUKEBOX MAN has a sterling chance in the Brown Advisory, but LEADER IN THE PARK is a horse who could be considered for the new 2m4f novices’ handicap chase.

On a podcast earlier this season, Pauling said this horse was arguably his best novice hurdler last season without truly showing it. That has ultimately allowed him to become a well-handicapped horse over fences, and yesterday he picked up his second chase success at Warwick.

When looking at the cards yesterday, we knew he was the one to beat but equally thought he would get beat given how badly Pauling’s horses have been running recently so it didn’t surprise us when CLASSIC ANTHEM nearly got up late. On the basis Pauling’s yard might well be under a little big cloud, we’ll upgrade his performance and assume the performance will save him a couple of pounds in the handicap going forward.

After the success, Pauling highlighted the Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase as a potential target, but it’s hard to know whether he’ll get in the race. He’s rated 124 now, so next week he could be rated 130. Because it is a Limited handicap, something rated 150 could run in the race and horses rated 12lbs inferior (hypothetically) could be out of the handicap. Hold your horses before backing him for this race until you know he’s declared and running with a decent weight.

Speaking of the Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase, the current ante-post favourite is JANGO BAIE. He was super impressive at Cheltenham on his chase start and Nicky Henderson is seemingly not keen to run him in either the Arkle or Brown Advisory, so if he went to Cheltenham, this might be his race. Well, this could’ve been his race if not for one key aspect – he’s not yet qualified.

Towards the end of this Sky Sports Racing interview with Matt Chapman, you may be forgiven for thinking that JANGO BAIE could run in the race, but as things stand, we believe he’s not qualified.

Novice chasers need three runs over fences to run in the contest and JANGO BAIE has just had one. There’s no chance he gets two more runs in, so we’d say he won’t qualify for the contest.

CHELTENHAM TRIAL 2?

LOSSIEMOUTH got an entry for Saturdays Unibet Hurdle yesterday, so we could get CONSTITUTION HILL vs LOSSIEMOUTH round 2?

Will she actually turn up though? Let’s dive into the betting markets…

A quick glance on the Betfair Exchange for the Irish Champion Hurdle next week shows that STATE MAN is roughly 2.4 on the machine and LOSSIEMOUTH is 3.00. Of course, not much money has been matched on the exchange, but it’s a similar story on the sportsbooks.

Soooooooo, is LOSSIEMOUTH going to go to the Unibet Hurdle? Well, she won it last year and it gives her a few more weeks of rest before Cheltenham.

Furthermore, she gets to take on CONSTITUTION HILL around a track she’s familiar with, and if she truly didn’t turn up the last day (like Willie Mullins said) then she can try and prove that. Also, if she comes here, Mullins will still have two nice chances in the Irish Champion Hurdle with STATE MAN, a horse who won’t win the Champion Hurdle, and ANZADAM, a horse who could be smart with a bit more experience.

Finally, this Saturday could make up the minds of Mullins and Rich Ricci regarding Cheltenham. Win and she runs in the Champion Hurdle, her original goal, but lose and she heads to the Mares’ Hurdle which could be without BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. She’d have a penalty kick in the Mares’ if BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD does go to the Champion Hurdle, but even if she doesn’t, she would be taking on a new rival who has not beaten her.

Do it Willie – run her this weekend!

DAWNING ON A PLAN

Can a hunter chase horse be a talking horse? Well, when they get tipped up on on moderately popular racing podcasts, notably Upping The Ante, then they could well sneak into the ‘talking horse’ bracket. Okay, so the horse we’re talking about is ANGELS DAWN, a winner at the Cheltenham Festival in 2023 when landing the Kim Muir.

The form of the 2023 Kim Muir has worked out nicely. STUMPTOWN, the second, has improved 14lbs, the third, MR INCREDIBLE, finished second in the Midlands National in 2024, and the likes of BEAUPORT, ANNUAL INVICTUS, and DR KANANGA were further behind.

Why do we bring this up? Well, ANGELS DAWN is being targeted back towards the Festival, but she is set to run in a different race. This time, it’ll be the Hunter Chase and she is the second favourite for the contest.

She’s qualified for the race having won both of her point-to-point starts this season, so we know she’s going to this race. On her chances, Sam Curling said: "She won a mares' open the first day that was only a two-runner race but she won a competitive open event well last time. Cheltenham is the aim and we've been working back from that all season, so it's great to get her qualified early.

"She'll go straight there. There aren't many hunter chases, there's one at Naas in a couple of weeks and Thurles, but there's no need to run her again and we said we'd keep her fresh for Cheltenham and maybe Punchestown afterwards."

With ITS ON THE LINE, ANGELS DAWN, SINE NOMINE, and FAMOUS CLERMONT as potentials, this could be a nice little contest.

RISK ON

We should have hedged yesterdays win bet with a reverse forecast, it was a no brainer in hindsight. We feel we were on the right horse - we can’t help them pulling their race away.

Today we are going to bet:

13.00 JO COKO

Taking on an odds-on shot which is always brave play but we think this lad is potentially a nice one. Admittedly, the yard could be in better form, but its a fairly weak event and we’re going to trust his ability. 7/2 is a dirty ew. Some might crab 7/2 ew but if he’s going to come second then we want something back.

At Leicester we think ATLANTIC LAD should win the 13.50 but has gone very short to use to lever up a bet of your choice.

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BUMPER

This is a tough bumper with several nicely bred horses topping the market.

The money has come for CABALO DE GUERRA, a SOLDIER OF FORTUNE gelding out of a dam who has produced a couple of winners. Strange the money has sided with this one given the low bar he sets from debut. The same yard are also repped by two others (TRIPLECROWN TED and KANITAMAY). TRIPLE CROWN TED (cool name) who, being by WLAK IN THE PARK, arguably has a better pedigree for this race and is aided by the claimer taking off 7lbs.

Third in the market is THEY’RE CHANCERS a well bred son of MILAN. The dam has produced two winners in EDWULF and GRAND MORNING, both were owned by McManus and both highly rated, the former a Grade 1 winner. Proper pedigree, just needs to be ready for today!

LITTLETOWN LAD is by CASAMENTO meaning this sort of race is right up his street but he might have preferred better ground. That said the dam won in heavy and she also won a bumper. Chance.

COUNT ADHEMAR is nicely bred for Don McCain. A half to the likes of bumper winning and once 145 rated SHANTOU BOB, he’s bred to be good on time but the drift suggests he needs a bit of time.

Of the other pedigree’s, the ones to note for the future are MISS MAC and KANITAMAY who is out of a half to Grand National winner PINEAU DE RE.

Verdict: THEY’RE CHANCERS is a tentative vote in a very competitive heat. As always, it’s a pedigree vote over anything else and we have no clue if they’re wound up for it today (for many trainers, bumpers are educational runs).

Competition: we have put £100 on THEY’RE CHANCES at 4/1 for someone to win should he oblige. The winner must have liked this morning’s tweet and will be picked at random.

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