Equinties - drawing a picture

Gm Equinauts

There were some big gambles landed yesterday,

An our own bets landed too including our fist winter bumper preview:

Today… looks a lot harder and we won’t be quick to start giving it back to the bookies.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

THE ARC DRAW

Does the Arc draw make a difference?

One would think the race is long enough for jockeys to be able to negate wing numbers but the field often gets stretched out, the field almost soaring round the long sweeping bends two by two.

Let’s check out the hard numbers behind the… numbers.

Only ZARKARVA, in 2008, has won from stall one, stall two to seven have produced 22 winners since 1988, eight to 11 have produced just three winners during the same period, and no winner has won from stall 13.

So, you have to look at those stats and take some encouragement/discouragement, but nothing is set in stone. After all, those stats don’t take into account placed horses. For example, WESTOVER finished second from stall one last year, SEA OF CLASS nearly beat ENABLE in 2018 from stall 15, and the first three home in the 2016 renewal read came from stall 12, 11, and 16 in that order.

Turning to this year, the French seem to have the rub of the green in this department. AVENTURE, SOSIE, SURVIE, DELIUS, and LOOK DE VEGA fill stalls 4-8 in that order.

As for the Japanese connections, AL RIFFA has to navigate nine and SHIN EMPEROR will come out of stall 11, so they probably aren’t that happy.

Still, it could be worse. HAYA ZARK has the unlucky box 13 to try and deal with and he was already one of the big outsiders anyway. Thanks for coming, HAYA ZARK!

IMPRESSIVE WARWICK BUMPER

Some times, betting horse racing is just too easy and yesterday was one of those days, with the final leg of the double counting on our bumper preview horse KAYLAN who obliged oh so effortlessly.

Under a confident rider from Kielan Woods, KAYLAN gave Fergal O’Brien his first winner for the Megson Family since they moved a few of their horses from Ben Pauling’s yard after the golf course drama.

The word on the street was that this horse was highly regarded when at his original Gloucestershire base, before switching to Fergals, and this tweet from O’Brien’s Twitter account suggests that he’d been showing plenty at home.

He was green in the home straight, so when you watch back the replay, you can see that he took time to wind up. Once he did, he rocketed past DEEP PURPLE to score stylishly.

KAYLAN’s dam is also a half to the soft ground-winning KOFFI ANGEL, and a lot of his pedigree is German-based, so you’d think this lad will be versatile ground wise.

The form of this Warwick bumper might be seen later down the line to have some holes in it, but KAYLAN could only beat what was in front of him and he did it easily enough.

Elsewhere on the card, Harry Cobden scored on his first ride back as he won on the odds-on shot CAPTAIN MARVELLOUS.

However, the post-script was a sombre one as it was revealed by big newsletter fan and and part-owner CAPTAIN MARVELLOUS , Jonny Allison, that he was put down.

He was dismounted by Cobden quickly and never made it back into the winners’ enclosure. Thoughts are with connections.

BULLISH FOR BREEGE

33/1. That was the price that BREEGE was sent off to win the Group 2 City Of Troy Stakes at York in late August, but she won by over a length and the form isn’t too bad.

SHOULDVEBEENARING, who has form MILL STREAM and KINROSS, was in third and AUDIENCE (who was entered for the Foret) was back in fourth.

So, it’s interesting to see that Chasemore Farm and John & Sean Quinn have supplemented their four-year-old by STARSPANGLEDBANNER for the Group 1 Prix de la Foret.

Owner-breeder Andrew Black says the reason behind running in the Group 1 over seven furlongs on Sunday is to not be “cowardly” and that he doesn’t want to “duck a challenge like this”.

Fair play for giving it a go. It’ll be tough for her, but fairy play.

RISK ON

Today looks a very messy day of racing with no stand out bets, perhaps only one over in France which we’re still pondering and will tweet on X @equinties if we decide to play.

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