Equinties - the Vauban plan or not

Gm Equinauts

We missed the news on VAUBAN from yesterday’s newsletter because we wanted to do the weekend round-up,and just as we were going to take a deep dive into his pedigree to work out of he’d stay in the Stayers, but now news has broke to suggest the only place he’s staying is Down Under!

Mullins Bingo!

In other, more important news…

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

YOUNG GUN DOWN

Falls in the career of a promising chaser can affect them in the long run. Horses remember things.

Let’s hope this isn’t the case for KALIF DU BERLAIS after he took a heavy fall at Carlisle when travelling well through his chasing debut.

The Grade 2-winning four-year-old jumped his fences very smartly until his fall at the fourth last, and he’s clearly a natural over the larger obstacles.

Nicholls hasn’t hidden his excitement for the young’un over fences this season and he even muttered his name in the same breath as KAUTO STAR, MASTER MINDED, and CLAN DES OBEAUX.

Assuming, more, hoping he comes out of that incident unphased, he’ll help form a good team of two-mile novice chasers for Ditcheat this year alongside RUBAUD, though one can assume they’ll be split up throughout the season.

With RUBAUD heading to the Wayward Lad over two miles at Kempton next month, could KALIF DU BERLAIS go to the Pendil Novices’ Chase over 2m4f in February?

Whatever happens, the main thing is that he’s okay after the fall. Although he fell on his chase debut, there’s plenty to look forward to going forward.

ANTE-POST NEWS

We speculated about the Coral Gold Cup in our October 31st edition of the newsletter and suggested that TRELAWNE, a fancied runner for the Newbury feature, would miss the race if he didn’t run in the Colin Parker Memorial Chase.

Well, he didn’t run in the Carlisle contest nine days ago because of the ground, and we got our confirmation from Kim Bailey yesterday that he will skip Newbury.

Instead, the 144-rated eight-year-old will travel north for his next run, as he said: “He's going to Haydock on Betfair Chase weekend for a graduation chase. We're praying it's going to be soft ground."

CHIANTI CLASSICO is also entered for the Coral Gold Cup, but he had a hard race at Ascot and could instead go for the Becher Chase.

This seems like a good move. Although, as we have already discussed, it will be tough to carry a rating of 157 in a Grand National, getting experience early in the season over the National fences will give connections plenty of information.

Whether he enjoys the fences or if he is actually a Grade 1 horse will all be answered if he goes to the Becher.

Not only have these horses got Bailey and the team into the headlines this week, but it’s also been confirmed that his assistant trainer Mat Nicholls will join the license.

Finally, to complete the news on ante-post omissions, TELLHERTHENAME has not been confirmed for the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham on Sunday.

WILL HE STAYIN’ THE BIG ONE?

Unless the deal on VAUBAN falls through, our following efforts were a complete waste of time…

It was bold of Willie Mullins to come out on Sunday and make such a statement but why?

Well, given Rich Ricci’s comment after the Melbourne Cup about not knowing what to do with him no, it simply looks like they’re running out of options with him.

So, the huge question - will he stay?

Well, the yard comments have always been the further he goes, the better he is. It was only when he got beat by the best stayers in the world in KYPRIOS, TRAWLERMAN and SWEET WILLIAM that they said 'he didn’t (stay) against that calibre of animal. That doesn’t mean he didn’t get the trip… he was just beat!

So, assuming there is absolutely no form evidence to suggest he wont stay the marathon Cheltenham trip, what does his pedigree say?

Well, he’s by GALIWAY so carries that all important GALILEO blood - that means he’s hard as nails mentally and, as he’s shown on many occasions, will run through brick walls to win. GALIWAY has already produced a good stayer in SUNWAY who arguably ran his best race in this years St Leger so we don’t think his sire is the issue.

What about the dam side?

His dam side is littered with staying flat horses and when you looks two dam’s back you will see MASKED MARVEL firmly in the family tree, he’s the sire of current stayers champ TEAHUPOO!

So, just on the theory of blood, it’s all adding up for us.

Plus, he’s a weapon of a horse on his day. He finished second, third, and second to STATE MAN in the 2022-23 season, and his three successes over FIL DOR in his juvenile hurdling days were smart. So Willie, is bang on the money suggesting he’d be the class horse in the race.

He won’t win a Champion Hurdle and he can’t beat KYPRIOS, so why not have a crack at something different? If it doesn’t work out, so what?!

Yo, Aussie buyers - send him to the prospective Stayers to find out!

BUMPER

We should have played Skelton’s horse with JJ’s yesterday but we imagine more was expected from OH CLARE given the late gamble on her. She looked massive and travelled easily but was ultimately was done for speed at the finish. She deserves to be followed when she goes over obstacles over further and will probably be the best horse from that race in time.

There are two bumpers today, both terrible so we’ll keep the preview short and the cash in our pocket.

First up is HUNTINGDON.

NOBLE MISS sets the standard and is odds on. She was gambled lto and got the jo done but it was a weak race and Balding’s in second did nothing for the form at Stratford lto.

LADY TADITA is well-related, she is a half to bumper winner GITCHE HUMEE and nice hurdler MYTHICL MOON, both for Alan King. Second dam produced CHILLI FILLI who was a bumper and Listed chase winning mare for Henry Daly.

The only other horse to note in this is DO WAH DIDDY (crap name) for Twiston Davies. The dam was useless but she in turn was a half to COLINS SISTER who was a Graded winner.

Verdict: a weak bumper and not one to get too heavy in but LADY TADITA is interesting and the tentative vote.

HEREFORD

WHAT U WANNA DO IS is nicely bred who is a half to useful bumper winning gelding NO TIME TO WAIT. Her mum was a winner too.

PRESENTING MILAN is a winner in waiting based on his debut but he’ll have to forget his second run.

CHESKY’S IN MILAN was well punted lto but didn’t do anything. We’re trying to work out why, but we don’t know. Moderate pedigree and looks one for handicaps.

DESERT GUEST has a flat pedigree and stamina shouldn’t be an issue. Contender on pedigree.

CELTIC QUEEN is related to flat winner who stayed but her sire is a big question mark… could be a weak enough race for her to get involved.

The price and yards of the other two suggest they can’t win.

Verdict: WHAT U WANNA DO probably has the nicest pedigree but she does have to beat a few of the boys namely PRESENTING MILAN and DESERT GUEST. This is a hard bumper, no verdict horse - we’re not touching it.

BUMPER RESULTS

03/10/24 KAYLAN 2/1 (11/8 SP) - 1st

08/10/24 LAURA LOU 11/1 & PLAYAWAY GIRL 14/1 - 6th & 9th

09/10/24 JOTO 2/1 6th

09/10/24 ID GO MANIAC 5/2 - 4th

12/10/24 MONEYGARROW 5/1 (13/8 SP) - 1st

16/10/24 KINGSLEY 7/1 - 8th

18/10/24 STRONG RUN 5/1 - 2nd

22/10/24 SECRET SNIPER 5/1 - 3rd

23/10/24 THE LONG WALK 100/30 - 3rd

27/10/24 SIOG GEAL 5/2 - 2nd

27/10/24 QUINNS REWARD 9/1 (14/1 SP) - 7th

27/10/24 TENNESSE TANGO 9/1 (12/1 SP) - 1st

28/10/24 ALLSTITCHEDUP 12/1 - 9th

30/10/24 KOSAC D’OUDAIRIES 11/2 (5/2 SP) - 5th

01/11/24 BEAU GOLD 11/2 - 8th

02/11/24 KAJIKIA 17/2 - 1st

07/11/24 BROOKSIDE LA 5/2 - 4th

07/11/24 EL CAIROS 100/30 - 1st

09/11/24 JOTO 7/1 (16/1 SP) - 4th

09/11/24 LINALENE 6/1 (9/4 SP) - 3rd

09/11/24 SWINGIN SAFARI 11/8 - 1st

11/11/24 OH CLARE 8/1 (3/1) - 4th

RISK ON

Yesterday was an easy betting day, yet still we lost. We went with the message horse in QUEENOFDESTRUCTION (who was useless) instead of our own picks, funnily enough we were so confident in, we were going to pay the intern’s wages with. We made the wrong decisions, but that’s betting horses.

If KALIF DE BERLIAS stood, he won. He looked a bit of tank yesterday, we just hope that fall hasn’t took too much out of mentally. Nicholls will need to look after him from now and build up his confidence slowly at home. We might not see him again for a good few months.

Today looks A LOT harder than yesterday and even the bumpers aren’t worth comment on.

Arguably, the best race of the day is the 14.10. This novice hurdle is one for the notebooks with eye’s on useful looking recruits in bumper winners METKAYINA and KEN ROY (brilliant name) and point winners OAK GROVE and IT’S HARD TO KNOW. IT’S HARD TO KNOW reps Pauling’s yard and hasn’t been seen under rules yet but owns very good collateral point form - eye’s on him!

Elsewhere we’re going to play:

14.35 CAMINO ROCIO

A shortie here at 1/1 with SKYBET and BET365, but this lad should take all the beating in this more than shocking race. We’re not saying the Best’s can improve horses from Knights yard, but her horses really haven’t been running well and we think it was no fluke that this lad bolted up since moving yards. It won’t take a lot to win this bad race, if there is a plot then we’re screwed but we don’t think there is so going with this lad to lead and no get caught.

We think we have a bet for Southwell but that is later and will tweet it.

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