Equinties - Cheltenham is BACK!

Author

BGP Capital
October 25, 2024

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Whilst Cheltenham is on and the National Hunt horses begin the start of their long winter campaigns,

we’ll be making the most of the sloppy ground at our home ground Newbury.

And as always, we’ve previewed the whole damn thing!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

INDIAN TAKEAWAY

It came as a small surprise to see CHINDIT sold off to India for his career at stud last year, and now their enthusiasm for breeding from British blood has meant another British horse will join their ever-growing stallion ranks - TERRITORIES, probably one of the biggest disappointments to ever grace the covering barn.

Labelled as DUBAWI II for his career stallion, there were extremely high hopes for TERRITORIES, who’s career best was winning the the 2015 Group 1 Jean Prat His spunk just couldn’t produce anything near his own talent.

A such he only stands for £10,000 at Dalham Hall Stud and has had moderate success this year with REGIONAL and LAZZAT, while the likes of ALDAARY, HOO YA MAL, and RHOSCOLYN have flown the flag in previous seasons.

It isn’t surprising to see him move one. He’s probably on the ‘non-priority’ list at Dalham Hall and they could have the likes of INISHERIN, NOTABLE SPEECH, and others coming through the ranks soon.

It looks like mares are already being lined up for him as well ahead of the move, as bloodstock agent Ajay Anne said: "Mr Zavaray Poonawalla is looking to acquire world-class stallions and broodmares for his esteemed stud farm in Pune. The process started last year when we started to buy some top-class mares at Tattersalls like Nemoralia, Riposte and Rostova and then we started to search for the best stallion prospect or a proven world-class sire itself.

"So here we are. Nemoralia is the dam of unbeaten Grade 2 winner May Day Ready, Pavlosk, a full-sister to Rostova, is responsible for Phoenix Stakes winner Babouche and, of course, Territories is a proven top-class sire with Lazzat this year."

A MOVE

Market moves in National Hunt racing. It’s what makes the world of Racing X in winter turn.

Remember when CONSTITUTION HILL was potentially running and then not running in the Champion Hurdle? Everyone with an internet connection and not much else to do with their evenings was glued to the Betfair Exchange, and it was quite funny.

Well, we have another market move to report, and it is on a Nicky Henderson horse as well as SIR GINO for the Arkle is under pressure!

At the start of the day, the Grade 1-winning hurdler was 16/1 and 14/1 in places, but he is now best-priced 10/1 and 11/2 in places (notably with Hendo’s sponsor’s Unibet!).

This comes a few days after Hendo said hurdling was probably going to be the plan this year. Pah!

So, is this sheep flocking on mere speculation or is it a fairly sharp money move on a new target?

Firstly, yard sponsor Unibet were down at the yard earlier this week for a pre-season preview, so maybe something was said there? Very much like when all the press went down to Willie Mullins’ ahead of last season and MISTER POLICEMAN crashed in the market for the Arkle (lol).

Furthermore, the whole CONSTITUTION HILL debate has been rife this week. Is his well-being affecting what SIR GINO will do this season? This argument becomes especially more prominent with the fact that the owners also have STATE MAN in the two-mile hurdling division.

Finally, and most importantly, pennies would move ante-post markets for the Cheltenham Festival at this stage. All it takes is for one bookmaker to get a small bit of money and the rest run scared by shortening him in as well. Sadly, that’s the current state of ante-post betting (and modern bookmaking).

Ultimately, what should Henderson do? Believe it or not, SIR GINO’s future depends on what happens to CONSTITUTION HILL. If he is sound, and we mean 100% sound, by the time the Fighting Fifth comes along, there’s a good chance SIR GINO will go over fences.

And why not? Henderson doesn’t have too many two-mile novice chasers for this season (JERIKO DU REPONET maybe, but he could do with 2m4f probably) and SIR GINO would get the four-year-old weight allowance over fences this side of Christmas.

And what should you do about it?

Well, in the voice of Connor McGregor - YOU’LL DO F*CKING NOTHING!

BIG RACE PREVIEWS

15.00 GRADE 2 SKY BET NOVICES’ HURDLE

This used to be called a Supreme Trial. Haha, do us a favour. None of this lot will line up in March.

Grade 2s in October in the National Hunt scene aren’t real Grade 2’s, but here we are and here’s our preview of Cheltenham’s ‘feature’ race.

GALE MAHLER has won her last six, and the last few have been quite nice performances. Three starts ago, she beat FLYING FORTUNE who has since bolted up in the Grade 2 Persian War, so her form is nice. She’s easy to weigh up and the market has her priced up right.

BRAVE KNIGHT is different to the other Paul Nicholls runners as he’s been on the go through the summer, so he should be as fit as a Willie Mullin fave in March. He gave weight away to DODGER LONG when beating him at Newton Abbot before DODGER LONG bolted up at Chepstow. He’ll like todays ground and had a good engine for a flat horse so should make his presence felt.

VALGRAND arguably has some of the best form in the race. He was second to THE KEMBLE BREWERY in a bumper, fourth to HORACES PEARL in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree, and then he won his two hurdles starts.

He’s interesting here, if he goes well fresh but it pains us to see him in this race - why isn’t he taking advantage of a handicap!?

In what shows the true strength of the race, DANCING IN PARIS – a debutante over hurdles – is in here. Brave and perhaps clever from Ian Williams knowing that this time of season might be the only opportunity to get even a sniff of black type. He has a rating in the 80s on the Flat, so he is clearly a nice animal. He’s a bit of a stayer on the Flat, so will he be the speedy type over jumps? There are a lot of questions about him.

IMAGINARIUM was rated in the 90s for Ger Lyons before making a successful start to hurdling for Olly Murphy. It would take a big step up for him to win here, however.

STRONG FOUNDATIONS completes the field, but on pure form, he was behind VALGRAND in a Cheltenham bumper and just got the job done at Warwick lto. It’s tough to see him win here.

Verdict: We can’t be arsed to bet her at 8/11, maybe shove her in a perm, but we won’t be taking on GALE MAHLER.

NEWBURY IN THE MUD

As always when there is racing at our home ground, we‘ll go through the card. We are going so will keep it short and sharp and focuses on the mud pedigree’s

13.41 2M APPRENTICE HANDICAP

Basically a low grade bumper.

ZIKANY absolutely hosed up lto at Goodwood and sets the standard. Pedigree suits and he is undoubtedly the one to beat. At 13/8, can he be beat?

Well, HARTUR D’OUDAIRIES looks a stinking plot job. The yard will be in super-high spirits after their big race win (and subsequent market mover) down-under and landing this one will seal off a great week. This lad was a bit of a disappointment for JP and the Skelton’s but he’s bred to be good and is already a bumper winner so now finally stepped up in trip, he’s bloody dangerous.

TAILORMAN probably wants quicker ground, maybe.

We know GREY OWL. We thought he was going to be a 75 horse and still shows signs he can reach that, he’s only 4yo so still has time. He’ll be versatile on the ground and carries a low weight. The squeeze on him isn’t us but it is indicative of a big run.

The rest, at the weights, will struggle to win we think.

Verdict: This is going to be a very interesting race. ZIKANY has shown his cards lto and that will be the form they all have to beat. GREY OWL will be there the end as he is a good galloper but if HARTUR D’OUDARIES still has any ability he could be absolutely thrown in. With only 7 runners, the one dart will have to be accurate and we’ll play big Brian’s who is currently sunning himself down under but will no doubt be still awake to watch this one!

14.16 6.5F CLASS 4 MAIDEN STAKES

This is a belter and only really concerns the front three in the market.

ULTRASOUL’s price has been absolutely obliterated and we can see why, his form is pretty bloody good. On debut he finished behind double Group 1 winner SHADOW OF LIGHT who is now rated 119!

We also think his lto form behind NIGHTWALKER is useful too. NIGHTWALKER is definitely one to follow next year.

MARVELMAN has drifted off fave out to a big 11/4, the market clearly not liking his recent form.

SPIRIT OF FARHH reps Eve who hasn’t had a brilliant year by her usual standards. This lad owns okay form in each of his two starts but the market is still taking him on at 9/4.

The newcomers will have to be well above average to beat the market leaders, and evidently there are a few non-triers in this race which make it a whole lot easier to punt.

Verdict: The money has come for Varian’s and big money it is, it will take a brave punter to take that on.

14.51 7F CLASS 3 HANDICAP

A tough race is this, with most in the field relishing the mud.

Ah look who heads this market - KODI LION - Norm’s regular punting horse, albeit he’s a little shorter than the times he’s backed him. He didn’t stay lto so this step back in trip is the right move. The ground should be okay on pedigree. He’s been unlucky in a few of his runs, notably when given a stinker in the Racing League at Newcastle. His owner’s must been pulling their hair out!

Who can beat him?

O’Meara’s next in the market looks the obvious danger. He’ll love the ground and he’s a regular in races of this standard. He’ll be in the mix.

Of the others, MERCIAN WARRIOR loves the mud and is fancied to go well for Eve (we can’t believe we missed him lto, but the yard was in a quiet spell…have they turned a corner?).

UNITED APPROACH and EXECUTIVE DECISION don’t look well handicapped so will need to be on top of their game to win this.

Verdict: We know KODI LION is still well handicapped so we won’t be surprised if he dots up again.

15.26 6F CLASS 3 HANDICAP

This looks a trappy handicap with a few in and out horses running so we shan’t spend too long on it.

ARAMRAM looks the best horse in the race and carries top weight. He’s won twice recently so perhaps this is one to take on. But with who?

LAND OF MAGIC loves the ground but we don’t think she is a class 3 horse.

KNEBWORTH is sure to go in the ground and although not trained by the best trainer, the yard is in form.

The bottom of the market CAPOTES DREAM loves the mud and ran a stinker lto but made up huge ground he lost early to nearly nab a place. He could out run his odds.

Verdict: We won’t bet but will hang out hats on either KNEBWORTH or CAPOTES DREAM who can win this if on a going day - but that’s not certain!

16.01 1M 4F CLASS 3 HANDICAP

The fave ITHACA’S ARROW is the money horse and we know why - he LOVES the mud. Already a winner over jumps at the track, there is absolutely no doubt he is the one to beat in today conditions.

Verdict: We’ll get straight to the point here, if ITHACA’S ARROW turns up primed for this, he should take all the beating. The only concern is he’s had a long enough season which leaves box unticked so probably only worth a small play at 2/1, if playing at all.

16.36 1M CLASS 4 NOVICE STAKES

A juicy 12 go to post here meaning a potential ew swing against Beckett’s heavy odds on fave. CENTIGRADE’s price suggests he’s expected to burn up the track and why not, he’s a close relation to new sire on the block, SERGIE PROKOFIEV. With a run under his belt, he should win as that Sandown form is very good (we’re still waiting on TYCOON to come out, he’s good!).

Who will be his main rivals today? Well, it depends who is actually trying and who is out for a it of public schooling.

SUDU for Varian is drifting but should go in the ground and his dam is related to stayers so the mile first time out will be fine.

Of the bigger prices, CRACKERGEE owns a good pedigree for the mud. At 25/1 he’s certain to like it more than most, but again, is this an easy day out or an actual race for him?

Beckett has three in this race. MAJESTIC LEO is owned by connections who don’t buy bad horses so he’s one to be wary of. We do wonder if he’d need slightly better ground and the other one THOSEWERETHEDASY is brilliantly bred but definitely needs better ground.

Verdict: The fave should win and pro’s will be going in at 8/11 - 8/13 but given we’re on track today, we’d like to try and find a value ew and the nod goes to CRACKERGEE at a whopping (but probably non-trying) price!

17.11 1M 2F CLASS 4 HANDICAP

A high chance we’d have left for the pub by this race. We’ve still looked at it though and despite believing Burkes is very well handicapped, we also think WINTERCRACK is a dirty ew to nothing as she needs it bottomless to go well and bottomless is what she’ll get.

RISK ON

We will be punting live from the track and have a strong bet today but will post it closer to the off so keep your notifications on for our X account @equinties.

For a big of leverage on one or two singles, try UNASSUMING in the 17.05 - supposed to be still well handicapped!

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