Equinties - Goodwood in the mud

Gm Equinauts

Goodwood in the mud might be Christmas come early by the end of the day.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

THE IMPROVER TO AUSSIE

It’s fair to say that one of the biggest improver stories of the European Flat season so far circles around LAZZAT, trained by Jerome Reynier and owned by Nurlan Bizakov (the same owner as CHARYN).

Having not run as a juvenile, he made his debut in January and has not looked back since. Six career runs have been and gone and six career winners have quickly followed suit, making him one of the few unbeaten Grade 1 winners left in training.

Connections have given him a little rest since the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at the start of August, but they have not lowered their sights. Instead of targeting the Group 1 Prix de la Foret, the Golden Eagle at Rosehill in November is the big plan.

Bold. Why? Well, the purse is $10 million. Time and time again we see horses go over to Australia (and go through the rigorous checks) in order to find some ludicrously good prize money.

On the decision to go to Rosehill, Reynier said: “He's going for the Golden Eagle in Sydney, so he's not going to run in the Foret - “tomorrow [Wednesday] morning he's going to Newmarket to start his quarantine, he stays in quarantine before taking a flight to Sydney on Oct. 13, he will be there on the 15, he will be released from quarantine on the 29 and will be racing on Nov. 2.

“It's quite exciting. It will be a change of environment and he needs to adapt to so many variables, but if he arrives safe and happy there, I think he will have a good chance.

“He's one of the best sprinters in Europe and is unbeaten in six starts, so it's a very exciting prospect and an exciting challenge.”

TO ARC OR NOT TO ARC

After her success in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille earlier this month, connections floated up the idea of running BLUESTOCKING in the Arc.

If they want to do that, they’ll have to cough up €120,000 on October 2nd in order to supplement her for the race.

That’s a lot of money, but the £2,484,348 up for grabs is a compelling argument. Hell, even finishing sixth nearly pays for the supplementation fee!

But, it’s not that easy as conditions need to be right for her. Soft ground is key to her appearance at Longchamp at the start of the month and there is not much rain predicted for Paris between today and supplementation day next Tuesday.

Juddmonte's racing manager Barry Mahon said: "She'll do a bit of work on Saturday and then if Ralph is happy with her wellbeing and the ground looks like it's coming up soft then there's every possibility she'll be supplemented.

"The owners are keen to give it a go, but we'll get Saturday out of the way first and then study the forecast on the Sunday and make our decision on Sunday or Monday."

Honestly, the Arc would be a dream to go to for a horse like BLUESTOCKING, but her record on good to firm is below that of her soft ground form (though she did finish second in this year’s King George on good to firm ground).

She’s four, so there’s scope to leave it a year and wait until she is five, but who knows what her racing attitude will be like then. Honestly, they should just run her because she is good enough to win the race.

A LOOK AHEAD

We were going to preview the Cambridgeshire, which is the feature handicap of this weekend, but a maximum field of 35 screams ‘HELL NO’.

So, instead, the £60,000 five-furlong handicap at Haydock on Saturday (15.15) is the race we are looking ahead to.

WILTSHIRE heads the betting having won three of his last four. He started the season on 91 and has a rating just 10lbs higher, so he has to be of interest.

The form of that Newcastle win has taken a bit of a battering, and a rating of 101 might just be on the steep side considering he was beaten by two and a quarter lengths in the Listed King Charlies II Stakes.

Three-year-olds only get one pound from their elders at this time of the year, so VENTURE CAPITAL is basically running off his usual mark of 92 on the weekend. The dam, VENTURA BLUES, is a half to the Group 3 winner SWIPE UP and he is certainly on an upward curve. His last win came at five furlongs, but he isn’t bred for this trip and he won a novice race over seven.

AMERICAN AFFAIR was running three pounds wrong at the weights for the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday, so a return to running on his mark of 94 is appreciated.

He beat a good field in the Portland two starts ago and he did it with a late run up the near side. He could continue to improve as he was too keen over six furlongs lto.

JER BATT beat AMERICAN AFFAIR at the start of August and was just touched off by the highly-touted SHAGRAAN at Haydock on his last start. He’s only four pounds higher than his success over AMERICAN AFFAIR and there’s nothing to say he can’t win off his current mark of 92, considering he was ahead of AMERICAN AFFAIR again when second to SHAGRAAN.

HAYMAKER has been fairly consistent this season, but because of this nice trait, a mark of 87 isn’t on his best side considering his last win was a narrow one off a mark of 85.

JM JUNGLE, having had a quiet first half of the season, seems to be back in form based on his win at York and his third in the Portland. He’ll be trying to race prominently and could be susceptible to late closers – ie, AMERICAN AFFAIR – but Haydock might just facilitate his style.

At the bigger prices, it’s not a long time ago since ABERAMA GOLD won the Stewards’ Cup off 96 and he is now rated 85. His third to ALFA KELLENIC three starts ago looks good considering what she did in the Silver Cup, so he is dangerously well-handicapped.

EQUILATERAL has been a brilliant horse for Hills who won this race easily two years ago with EQUALITY. He’s done all his best runs on fast ground so all this rain will be a big problem and might not even run.

DESIGNER for John Butler is a good horse. He has his first run back last month after a mammoth absence so has clearly had problems, but would be a huge danger to this field if back firing. The ground should be no problem.

Verdict: Historically, the market has got this race spot on with 5 from the last 8 faves winning it, the others fairly short in the mark. At this time of writing - we’re going to tentatively hang our hat on DESIGNER who we know will cope with the mud. If she’s still an intended runner on the day and we see some market support for him, we’ll give him a go. She’s currently 16/1 which might be worth a tiny ew now.

GOODWOOD IN THE MUD

14.201M 2F MAIDEN STAKES

Most in this are seeing the track for the first time and they’ll have to be special to beat SING US A SONG first time out. Beckett’s sets a pretty good standard even without the form being franked.

At 11/4 on, can he be taken on? It would be a bold play but in heavy going, anything can happen.

KARAWAY is next in line at a whopping 8/1, demonstrating the market strength of this fave. He has a mud pedigree and is one of several horses Menuisier has brought here today. His dam side is stamina laden and he’ll relish the ground today.

NOVELISTA is bred lovely but bred for fast ground. She should struggle today but would have been a huge player if the ground was quick, especially given the Johnston’s love a Goodwood winner.

NELSON GATE for the Moore’s is stamina laden and will probably be seeing even further trips next year and perhaps even jumps in a few years. He can run well.

FLAMENCO BAY looks an interesting one for handicaps next year and Hannon’s just looks a slow horse but will go in the ground.

Verdict: On pedigree, KARAWAY could give a bold show in the mud. He is 15/8 to win without the fave in the market - we’ll play that.

14.55 1M CLASS 2 HANDICAP

This is a tough one to work out as several here will like the mud, namely MAGIC MEMORIES and last years winner RHOSCOLYN.

MAGIC MEMORIES has been smashed into fave this morning and has been running well as a mid-80’s horse this year and as such gets a low weight in this 0-105.

RHOSCOLYN carries top weight as a high 90’s horse. He’s run a lot this season but never had heavy ground which will see the best in him.

The race should really play out between these two as the others might prefer quicker ground.

Verdict: RHOSCOLYN represents owners who like a punt - and they are mob handed today with a few runners across the days cards and we think they’re all in with huge chances… they couldn’t, could they? MAGIC MEMORIES at the weights will be a huge danger. He looks like a horse still on the up and as such was backed on his penultimate run when up against top horses like HOLLOWAY BOY at Sandown. We like MAGIC MEMORIES to take this at 9/4. RHOSCOLYN to follow him home.

15.30 6F CLASS 4 HANDICAP

Three standout pedigree’s for the mud in this low grade handicap are TRIAC, CAPOTES DREAM and FIVE WINS.

FIVE WINDS has a bit to find with TRIAC and CAPOTES DREAM, we can’t split the latter - but we wouldn’t be surprised to see these three fill the top 3 spots.

Verdict: Not an appealing betting race with several well poised to go well in todays conditions, but CAPOTES DREAM must surely be an ew to nothing in this ground at 11/2.

16.05 1M 2F CLASS 1 LISTED RACE

We landed the winner of this race last year with MY PROSPERO but it hasn’t always been odds on shots winning it - the last ten years has thrown up some big prices.

Today fave is BOTANICAL who makes his debut for George Boughey having come from Varian’s yard. Versatile on the ground, he has the recent form to beat but we feel there will be others more suited to heavy going.

And that isn’t in MACDUFF. He’s been an odd horse to follow this season - he hasn’t been close to winning since his Maiden win at HQ last year. A brilliant pedigree, he should have bundles of ability but should want faster ground today

NOVUS is a huge danger at 9/2. He loves the mud and knows this track well. A race of this nature is well within his grasp today, evident from his close 2nd here in Listed company back in May when it was soft.

The other standout pedigree’s for the mud are HEARTACHE TONIGHT and TERRE DE VEGA. The former is a half the yards brilliant WONDERFUL TONIGHT who excelled in the slop and the latter is a very unexposed horse for Shaggas.

Verdict: We could play a few darts at big prices in this in the hope one of them lands. NOVUS shortest at 9/2 with the bigger priced swings on HEARTACHE TONIGHT 16’s and TERRE DE VEGA 25/1 who looks on the up. Small bets on all three.

16.40 7F 2YO FILLIES’ SERIES FINAL

A top horse in CHIC COLOMBE for George Boughey won this last year, so whoever wins this will surely be one to follow into next year.

MISS NIGHTFALL is the strong fave at 2/1 owed to her recent form with the boys HALLASAN and CAMILLE PISSARRO. That’s a pretty good standard and she only just ran out of track - she could have won!

Norm’s lto gamble SHES PERFECT has been backed from 8’s into 4’s.

Charlie Fellowes is having a good time of it recently and this girl looked good. Word is she’s a nice quick filly, the obvious concern is how she’ll handle the ground. There is some suggestion amidst her dam side to say she might handle it.

LOVE TALK is a soft ground specialist so trainer Grant Tuer will be licking his lips today. Her form when staying on to fourth in a Group race in Deauville is nice which should make her a huge contender today in this ground.

You have to keep scrolling down the list to find the next soft ground pedigree worthy of note and that’s GRISELDA who we have backed before. She’ll love the ground today but has already had a busy season landing gambles and winning three times. This might just be one race too many but, if Scott has managed to keep her fresh and bouncing, she’s not to be dismissed.

The others might have too much to find.

Verdict: We think the market has this spot on. MISS NIGHTFALL is defo the girl to beat, SHES PERFECT could be anything and LOVE TALK will love the ground. Between those three. We’ll side with an ew swing on LOVE TALK to beat the hot fave.

17.15 1M 6F FILLILES HANDICAP

A disappointing field of four runners here with a FRANKEL heading the market but there is one standout pedigree for the mud in ENTRANCEMENT!

David Menuisier has got them lined up today and, like Tuer in the race before, no doubt will have been doing the rain dance last night! We know Norm likes a good bet on Menuisier horses so watch out in case he puts one of them up today.

Her last win was at Goodwood in the deep mud and it looks like the stars have aligned for her today to not only reverse the lto placing behind CRYSTAL FLYER, but to win.

Verdict: ENTRANCEMENT to grind it out and get her head back in front at Goodwood.

The 17.50 is tough race with a few mud lovers running. Interesting money has come fr Moore’s - smashed into even money fave… but he was fancied last time and disappointed so we’ll leave him today.

RISK ON

SLOP PLACE ACCA:

14.20 KARAWAY TOP 3

14.55 RHOSCOLYN TOP 3

15.30 CAPOTES DREAM TOP 5

16.05 NOVUS TOP 4

16.40 LOVE TALK TOP 4

17.15 ENTRANCEMENT TOP 2

PAYS 16/1.

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