Equinties - Ballydoyle guns

Author

BGP Capital
March 25, 2025

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

The sun is shining and the Brocklesby is priced up which means only one thing, the the beautiful Guineas is on the horizon.

After the lengthy, persistent, and sometimes mind-numbing period of Cheltenham-related chat, it’s a pleasure to start thinking about some of the fastest horses on the planet.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

BALLYDOYLE BOYS

Aidan O’Brien had his first media day of the year yesterday, and there was some pretty noteworthy news to talk about for once.

The general news line from the morning surrounded his Guineas runners and the potential absence of THE LION IN WINTER.

He said: "The Lion In Winter is in good shape but he took a little bit of time to come right so he’s a little bit behind the others. He was at the Curragh last weekend and it went well and the work was easy. Whether he’ll make it in time for the Guineas, I’m not sure. He’s carrying plenty of condition, so in the next few weeks we’ll know.

"There has to be a doubt about the Guineas, but he’s very well. I don't think he'll be ready in time but that's not to say he won't be, we'll know in the next couple of weeks. If he doesn't go, he'll go to the Dante on the way to the Derby.”

Expanding his Guineas comments with prominent in the market EXPANDED:

"Expanded got beat a short head in the Dewhurst so he's not a Group winner. He could go to the Curragh for the Tetrarch the day after the Guineas if he doesn't go to Newmarket. He looks like he's going to stay. It was an incredible run in the Dewhurst on his second start."

To varying extent, many of Aidan’s horses needed their first runs last season, very much like what Willie Mullins’ horses need in their respective campaigns, so, if a horse like THE LION IN WINTER is already behind in his work, we wouldn’t be expecting him to show up at Newmarket.

So who is the flag bearer?

Well, HENRI MATISSE won at the Breeders’ Cup last year, but France was mentioned for him. “It depends on the ground” was the official line so right now, his representative at the Rowley Mile looks set to be new market leader TWAIN; the horse who won his debut and Group 1 Criterium International in the space of eight days.

On TWAIN, he said: "Physically, Twain has done very well. It ended up soft for both his runs but we think he'd have no problem on better ground. He's doing everything great and could start in the Guineas. He looks a very good horse and looks like he'll have no problem getting a mile, while he seems like he will get a mile and a quarter well and if he's that good over that distance, he could get the Derby trip.

Looking at the ante-post market for the race, EXPANDED is the 6/1 second favourite, but with his uncertainty, the horses around him have all been cut; ANCIENT TRUTH and SHADOW OF LIGHT, the Godolphin pair, are 8/1, TWAIN is the same price, RULING COURT is 12/1, OPERA BALLO (the all-weather Godolphin hope) is 14/1, SCORTHY CHAMP is the same price, and COSMIC YEAR is 16/1.

Funnily enough, speaking of COSMIC YEAR, we found an update from Harry Charlton that slipped through the net at the start of the year.

The aura from the interview was that Charlton, in January, didn’t want to send him to the Guineas on the back of one run and the Greenham was on their radar. How he runs in that will then give them a view of his Guineas credentials. He did look very impressive on debut at Sandown!

O’Brien also gave a notable update on his 1000 Guineas squad, but that deserves its own section.

THE GIRLS

As for the 1000 Guineas, it’s all a bit touch and go for LAKE VICTORIA, a prominent figure in the betting market for the second Classic of the year. The Racing Post headline suggests O’Brien is “hopeful”, but some of his quotes slightly contradict this.

He said: "Lake Victoria is in good form and was at the Curragh last weekend. She had a long break, longer than the others, because her year was very long. She went nice at the Curragh in an easy piece of work.

"I'm not sure she'll make the Guineas, but we're training her for it. If she doesn't, she'll go to the Athasi Stakes at the Curragh the day after. Knowing her, she probably will come [good] in time because she's that type of filly. Physically, she has done very well."

Again, much like THE LION IN WINTER, the quotes seem fairly negative regarding her potential Newmarket participation, but she’s not totally out of it. O’Brien seems to be relying on LAKE VICTORIA ‘doing her thing’ in order to start showing him enough at home. Since the media day, she has drifted out to 10/1 for the Guineas.

O’Brien will have a few runners in the contest though, starting with FAIRY GODMOTHER who could emulate MOTHER EARTH, LOVE and HERMOSA by winning it on her seasonal return.

He said: "Fairy Godmother was also at the Curragh last weekend, when we were very happy with her. She worked seven furlongs with an ease in the ground and got it very well. She did an unusual thing at Ascot and it's very possible she could go to the Guineas without a run."

Of his other potential 1000 Guineas runners, he said: "Exactly could run in the English Guineas or go to France. She's very straightforward and is working great. She was very good at Leopardstown, but we made too much use of her in the Boussac. I should have told Christophe [Soumillon] to maybe be a little more reserved with her as she quickens very well. She's very smart.

"Bedtime Story is a little highly strung, a bit like her sister Content. She tries to do a bit too much so I'd imagine wherever she runs, she'll run second or third string where there will be no pressure as we'll try to switch her off. She ran too keen a few times after Ascot. We thought Content wouldn't stay a mile and a half but she did, so there's probably every chance she could too."

The current 1000 Guineas market sees DESERT FLOWER at 7/4, FAIRY GODMOTHER at 5/1, RED LETTER at 12s, BUBBLING and FALLING SNOW at 16s, EXACTLY and VERTICAL BLUE at 20s, NARDRA at 25s, and BEDTIME STORY at 33s.

If you were a DESERT FLOWER fan before yesterday’s news, you would have slept pretty soundly last night. She looked good last year, and her nearest market rival has all but been ruled out of the contest. It could be a very blue year in Newmarket this season.

GETTING LIKELY

There’s more fuel to add to the ‘BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD to Aintree’ fire just a week on from Eddie O’Leary first suggesting the idea.

Five days ago, O’Leary floated up the idea of the Aintree Hurdle for Gigginstown’s number one star when he said: “It would be in the two-and-a-half-mile race at Liverpool. We’d prefer to go left-handed, but it would be up to her.”

Well, in a fresh piece with the Racing Post, Gordon Elliott reiterated this point with just nine days to go until the big Grade 1 2m4f hurdle.

He said: "She's back riding out so we'll just see how she is over the next few days before deciding anything. Aintree is very much on the agenda at the moment. She'll tell us, we won't tell her. We had a brilliant meeting over at Aintree last year and we have a nice team to head back there. Croke Park will go for the Grade 1 novice chase and Teahupoo might go for the Liverpool Hurdle as well.”

The difference between O’Leary’s comments and Elliott’s comments is that we now know CONSTITUTION HILL is likely to head to the Aintree Hurdle as well.

What a race we could have, perhaps better than any Cheltenham promised and failed to deliver on.

Not only will we hopefully get the CONSTITUTION HILL vs BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD clash that we didn’t really get to see at Cheltenham, but we will also be getting it on a fairer track and, crucially, over 2m4f.

Why is this important? Well, arguably CONSTITUTION HILL didn’t win the 2023 Aintree Hurdle as snugly as many people were expecting, and connections have always said BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD will appreciate a trip. The flat nature of Aintree also negates any potential ‘not liking Cheltenham’ factors in the clash.

CONSTITUTION HILL vs BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD over 2m4f at Aintree is arguably the most level playing field anyone could ask for. It plays to all the right strengths in order to make it a fair battle.

Our thoughts? If we get this clash, CONSITUTION HILL will finally get the credit he deserves.

RISK ON

14.35 FASOL & DANCE AND GLANCE

We think the Taunton opener will be dominated by two horses and with FASOL getting his ground again he should win with DANCE AND GLANCE can follow him home. Lever up with Balding’s TURQUINO in the 18.15 and Fergal’s to place in the Taunton bumper. The treble pays a short 2/1. We wouldn’t normally bet a treble like this but the markets have been obliterated so we’re chancing Fergals to run well fir time out.

WE HAVE PAID THOUSANDS IN WINNING COMPETITION BETS THIS MONTH, SUBSCRIBE BELOW TO ENTER TODAYS BUMPER COMPETITION!

NOTE: ahead of the flat season, we have upped the price of the newsletter to the price of a single Cheltenham pint. This is to cover the costs of bringing in bloodstock experts to provide detailed pedigree analysis of most of the 2yo races which will replace our bumper previews and competitions. A big discount is offered for annual subs.

BUMPER

Two moderate bumpers today so instead of trawling through the all the pedigrees we will just post a brief preview with the competition bet.

At Taunton the market is dominated by Nicholls’ 4/9 shot who, on rpr’s, sets a high standard. We imagine he will improve for time at Pauls but he was fading in his Newbury finish and that ground was slow, today will be completely different. Fergal’s well-named named SNATCH A GLANCE is a homebred for his owner who raced the winning dam with Fergal too. The quick ground shouldn’t be a problem and even if Nicholls’ is too good, we expect this lad to place.

The Hexham bumper is a similar market story with Lucinda’s odds on. The form of her lad has been franked albeit it was a bunched finish and although he should be winning, we think is too short in a competitive heat. TEA BOY is well bred being a half to PUT THE KETTLE ON but we will play Menzies’ LAST MAN STANDING to place in the top 3 given the yards horses have been running well in bumpers this season.

COMPETITION BET: we have placed a £100 stake on the Fergal and Menzies horses to place top 3 double paying £200 profit for someone to win should they oblige.