Equinties - Stoutey out

Gm Equinauts

Sir Michael Stoute signing out, Donald Trump back in - some big names in history are dominating this morning’s headlines and the public will naturally have very mixed emotions.

If you tune into the 15.50 you’ll see Sir Michael Stoute saddle up his last ever runner after a brilliant career spanning 50 years.

Thank you for the memories Stoutey! Time for you to go enjoy retirement from the pavilion!

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

NOT SO FAST, PUNTERS

Plenty caught on to the idea that FASTORSLOW was a good bet for the King George when Martin Brassil confirmed he was being targeted to the race earlier this year, as such, his exclusion from the big Boxing Day feature would have come as a bit of shock to his ante-post backers.

With no news about a setback, one can only speculate as to the reason for the abandonment.

Another missing from the line up is FACT TO FILE who’s trainer, Wizard Willie, also floated the idea of going for the Boxing Day feature.

So, with those two massive absentees, how does this affect the race?

Well, let’s start with GAELIC WARRIOR. Although there was talk for the King George in Mullins’ stable tour last month, he is also “convinced” to try him at a high level over two miles. That could mean he misses Kempton on Boxing Day too.

Mr Mullins, if you’re watching, please send him to the King George. Seeing him fly around a flat right-handed course like Kempton in one of the season-defining races would be glorious. DO IT!

As for others, Paul Nicholls has openly admitted that the current form of BRAVEMANSGAME would not win a King George, surely GALOPIN DES CHAMPS doesn’t come over, the jury is still out on BANBRIDGE over three miles (especially on soft ground) and HEWICK is ground dependent as well.

IL EST FRANCAIS, if back to his Kauto Star-winning self, could just pick this up and win by a street, or the still unexposed IL ETAIT TEMPS (who beat GAELIC WARRIOR at Punchestown) could well get three miles around Kempton.

It’s hard enough trying to work out who is actually going to turn up, let alone pick the winner at this point but we really hope most of them make the start line because it’ll be a race to make Christmas!

NOTABLE ENTRIES

Speaking of entries for the big Grade 1 races in the UK, CORBETTS CROSS was handed an entry for both the Betfair Chase and King George by connections.

On first viewing, this makes sense.

JP McManus has FACT TO FILE, SPILLANE’S TOWER, INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN, I AM MAXIMUS, IROKO, and CORBETTS CROSS to split up over the Grade 1 three-mile open chases this season.

They may not be trained at the same yard, but ultimately, we all know ‘the great man’ has strong influence when it comes to where his horses go.

Willie Mullins has also ruled out FACT TO FILE for Kempton, SPILLANE’S TOWER would be unlikely to come over until Cheltenham, IROKO is still six and didn’t get any entries, the same goes for INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN, and I AM MAXIMUS has the National as his main aim.

So, by process of elimination, CORBETTS CROSS is the one who gets the nod from team Green and Gold. Emmet Mullins is a trainer who likes to send them over to the UK, so the entries make sense and and he has confirmed that the Betfair is the initial aim.

So, what about his chances?

He dotted up in a weak National Hunt Chase, but his third in the Aintree Bowl looks very sound. Mind you, the front three were only separated by three lengths.

Honestly, there might be classier horses than him. We know to fear the Irish raiders and all, but there could just be better horses on the day.

REASONABLE RODIN

The Coolmore stallion fees were released yesterday and it appears there was a very commercial decision to price AUGUSTE RODIN up at very reasonable fee of €30,000. One can imagine the queue of mares is already filling up to visit him for the 2025 covering season.

With the DEEP IMPACT influence on his sire’s side and GALILEO as his damsire, he has plenty of upsides. He was also a Group 1 winner at two, three, and four, and one of those Group 1 wins (the Futurity) came on heavy ground.

We think even if Coolmore slapped €50,000, or something near that next to his name, no one would really bat an eyelid. He’ll get plenty of business.

As for the other big news to mention, CITY OF TROY will cost breeders €70,000 for his services.

70k for a Derby, Coral-Eclipse, and Juddmonte International winner reads like another commercially astute decision to us.

He’s probably not ‘value’, but his price seems fair given he is the first horse since SEA THE STARS to achieve such feats. Plus, the JUSTIFY x GALILEO blood is so attractive.

What’s also worth mentioning is the big drop in price by €30,000 for PADDINGTON, €25,000 for NO NAY NEVER, and €7,500 for LITTLE BIG BEAR.

TWEETS OF THE DAY

RISK ON

13.20 TRIPOLI FLYER

A shortie but could be a goodie at 10/11. He was a brilliant bumper horse and should translate that nicely over obstacles. He’ll like the quicker ground versus his only market rival in the race fit JURANCON. Leverage for another bet… if there is one!

We’re still studying this tough days racing with a longer look at the very competitive Chepstow bumper. We don’t tip every day and like to be fairly clinical with our risk on.

Any bets will be posted on X @equinties.

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