Equinties - weekend lament

Gm Equinauts

All eye’s were on one horse and one horse only this weekend - CITY OF TROY.

The ‘best horse I’ve ever trained’ - that was Aidan’s remark ahead of his Derby run. A strong statement almost willing punters to keep the faith and back him after his Guineas flop, as if the market confidence would translate to the horses performance on the famous Epsom course.

There was a certain sense of awe as CITY OF TROY scorched across the line, Ryan Moore struggling to pull him up. He was brilliant.

The doubters silenced, an online rumbling of ‘he told you all’ echoed around socials as punters shared their aftertime slips.

Derby day was the day every one in the racing world sat up and took note of the champion 2yo turned Derby victor CITY OF TROY, carrying the mantle of ‘best ever’.

This is why Saturday’s Breeders Cup classic was so important.

If doesn’t matter if you were with CITY OF TROY or against him, deep down everyone want’s to see a champion win.

Take us for example, a s a publication needing to give unbiased racing previews for the benefit of punters, we did take him on with the massive caveat that we wanted to see something special from him. Yes, him winning would have seen our bet slips in the bin but the memory of watching ‘that’ champion would have lasted forever.

Why would you not want to watch history being made?

The dream never materialised. He was beat from the gates, never looked happy and was never even in the race. It was sad to see.

He hated the dirt that was so alien to him. He had too much of the GALILEO influence from his mum’s side which would require him good ground to see the best of him. We say he had too much class. The result would have been different on turf but connections were brave enough to go into territory unknown and that can only be commended.

This meme summed up our feelings perfectly:

No one should have laughed at CITY OF TROY, no one wants to see a champion beat.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

WHACKED THEM!

The public opinion of THE REAL WHACKER is quite funny.

Some people love him…

And others, well, they have an opposing view borne from ripped up bet slips.

Us? We’re quite indifferent and just know when to back a top horse on the right day.

Whatever you may think, Saturday was his day, and the pre-race market move for him showed.

Having been 12/1 at the entry stage, 16/1 after declarations, and 8/1 in the morning, he went off 5/1 and won like the race was never in doubt.

Why was the market so confident of a big run from the REAL WHACKER?

One word - ground.

Finally, Neville was running his Brown Advisory winner on good ground he hadn’t seen for a whole season! Compounded by a fitness on his side compared to a few in the race (which is key at this stage of the jumps season and his ability to send it like a stag, we knew he would lead an be damned hard to catch.

There’s no doubt that he has a ceiling, he won’t win a Gold Cup - Patrick Neville has admitted his season is “ground dependent”, but ultimately Saturday was his day versus a field we could draw lines through. He could well rock up to something like an Aintree Bowl, Oaksey Chase or Punchestown Gold Cup on decent ground and give a few nice chasers something to think about.

However, what needs to be discussed after the Charlie Hall Chase is the run of BRAVEMANSGAME.

Is yard form to blame or is he not the same?

He won on seasonal reappearance in 2021 and 2022, so he goes well fresh, and he likes better ground. Those closest to him even said he’d go very well in the run-up to the race, so it almost seems like there are no excuses for him at the moment.

It’s one or two runs too early to completely write him off especially given THE REAL WHACKER is a proper Cheltenham winner and certainly no mug, so that’s one real excuse us without reverting back to the questionable yard from of Nicholls.

Still, lot’s on X are throwing up the idea that his ‘23 Gold Cup when chasing home GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has broken him.

COLOMBE COOKED?

Speaking of horses not being the same after a battle with GALOPIN DES CHAMPS, GERRI COLOMBE was poor in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase on Saturday.

Unlike Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliott’s horses have hit the ground running recently, so it’s hard to use the ‘it was his first run of the season’ excuse in this scenario.

Furthermore, when the trainer suggests that he might run some tests on the horse in his post-race interview, that would make you think that Elliott was surprised by his effort.

The 2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up was laboured at his fences and looked slow on the Flat. Considering he had a bad route through the race last year and still managed to win, one would have to be worried.

In fairness to the Aintree Bowl winner, he probably hated the ground and would prefer a softer surface. Christmas races are likely to suit much better, but there would have to be a small asterisk next to his name on his next run.

NATIONAL NOW?

All of a sudden, the handicapper has become the most important man in Kim Bailey’s world right now.

That’s because CHIANTI CLASSICO won nicely on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot on Saturday, and how he is reassessed on Tuesday might just affect his end-of-season target.

With a rating of 152 now, eight or so pounds from the handicapper may just push him to a weight that would be hard to carry in the Grand National, and it’ll be hard for Bailey to get those pounds off his back without obviously stopping him because he is very good.

He’s proven he’s ground versatile, he stays longer than the in-laws, and he’s still improving at the age of seven.

Bailey and connections have always been keen on the Grand National for him this year, and while the National isn’t a typical handicap these days, only I AM MAXIMUS (159), TIGER ROLL (159), and MANY CLOUDS (160) have won the National with a rating higher than 150 in the last 10 years.

At this early stage, one could argue that he has the ability to join this small group of high-rated National winners. He’s still unexposed over fences, he jumps slickly, and he’s a proper battler.

He’s clearly classy, and a National may just suit him better than trying Grade 1 races with him.

EYE-CATCHERS

WHITE RHINO - SATURDAY 14.29 AYR

We backed him, he jumped for fun and got the job done - easily!

For a first run over fences against hardened handicappers, his performance was exceptional. He barely touched a twig and galloped the whole field into submission under Henry Brooke who appeared to know exactly what he had under him.

It’s understood he had been doing good home work with stable mate IROKO so we knew that was good enough to be hyper-competitive Saturday but still, anything could happen first time over fences in public. Well, there was nothing to worry about and we only wish we had more on. He’s a very exciting handicapper to follow.

BREAK MY SOUL - SATURDAY 15.15 ASCOT

Connections hyped up BREAK MY SOUL last season for obvious reasons. She was a point-to-point winner and cost £290,000, so her profile is exciting.

On Saturday, she stepped into handicap company off 122 and ran a mighty fine race to finish second to the race-fit OUR CHAMP who got his preferable good ground conditions.

She looked like she stayed well at Ascot on Saturday and she’s likely to come on for it nicely, so a step up in trip wouldn’t go a miss with the benefit of race fitness.

She’s nice and will continue to progress.

COLONEL HARRY - SUNDAY 13.48 CARLISLE

The Coral Gold Cup is next for COLONEL HARRY and after his prep in the Colin Parker yesterday, he would have to enter calculations.

It was his first run of the season and Jamie Snowden is prepping his horses well for big races in the standard way. Good run without winning and coming on for it fitness-wise.

He was well-backed before the off probably due to the fact it was a winnable race, and he ran well for a while but probably got racing a bit too far out from home with TRAPRAIN LAW.

He’s 25/1 for the Newbury feature and will be ready to go.

RISK ON

After a brilliant, brilliant weekend of punting, if we’re going to play anything today we’ll post it on X @equinties.

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