Equinties - market mayhem

Gm Equinauts

We’re on!

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

LEADING TO AINTREE

Olly Murphy has had a plan in his head for a while regarding his stable star STRONG LEADER. After his Long Distance Hurdle success in November, he suggested that his Grade 1 winner would only head to the Stayers’ Hurdle if he ran in the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day.

That’s a fine opinion to have on the horse. Of his three trips to Prestbury Park, he was beaten in a bumper, he was well-beaten in a Supreme, he was well-beaten in a Relkeel Hurdle, and he finished a staying-on third in last year’s Cleeve Hurdle.

The best of those four runs is clearly the Cleeve Hurdle performance, but finishing behind NOBLE YEATS and PAISLEY PARK and only ahead of the likes of DASHEL DRASHER, CHAMP, BOTOX HAS, and FLIGHT DECK, isn’t the greatest form in the division.

Just over two months after his Newbury success and one month after his big Long Walk Hurdle disappointment, Murphy has the same plan to run him in the Cleeve Hurdle before making any big decisions. He said: “He’s going to gallop on Thursday and all being well he’ll go for the Cleeve. We were very disappointed after his run at Ascot, but he came back with a wind issue.

“We have a way to go to get back to where he was last season after that run, but he bounced back from a poor run in the Welsh Champion Hurdle in that campaign and I fully believe he can do so again.

“We might fit him with a tongue-tie, while a bit of better ground would help. He’s beaten most horses in that division and I’m looking forward to running him. “Bar him running very well in the Cleeve, he won’t be running in the Stayers’ Hurdle and will go back to Aintree. This run will tell us a lot though and dictate our plans for the spring.”

Targeting the Liverpool Hurdle is the right move. He’s probably not the most reliable horse to trust in the world, and TEAHUPOO would almost certainly beat him in a Stayers. So, why not miss Cheltenham and wait for Aintree where you will almost certainly take on an easier field

 Now, we’re not saying he is a certainty as he needs to prove himself just that little bit more, but Murphy is calculated in is planning.

COUNTING BACK

Cheltenham Festival handicap chat. Is it acceptable yet? Look, we’ve voiced our opinions about betting Cheltenham ante-post in the past. In short, we think unless you’ve got real good insight into the long terms plan of one, it’s nothing more than a fun lottery ticket – and there is no bigger argument to do it than ‘fun’ – like the ‘because it tastes good’ argument when discussing bacon with a vegan.

The barrier’s to success in ante-post are long and distinguished: the ground could suddenly change (like it did on the Wednesday of the 2022 Festival), your favourite jockey could be injured, the trainer could be wildly out of form (Nicky Henderson last season) and ultimately horse soundness – they’re big clumsy animals who could do a leg eating breakfast -there are just too many things to go wrong for an ante-post Cheltenham bet and quite frankly, the prices don’t reflect the risk you’re taking.  

That doesn’t stop the ‘Cheltenham Festival ante-post tips flying around on Racing X though! It’s plagued with bets put up by people who know that because it’s so early, their audience will forget the post ever existed unless it wins – then the tipster will bloody let them know.

Anyway, we got some entries through for Cheltenham’s Grade 1 open grade hurdle races yesterday, and the surprises were minimal, bar an entry from Japan in the Champion Hurdle.

KARGESE, a horse we spoke about in last week’s newsletter, was a talking horse on Racing X yesterday as her British handicap mark was revealed. 141 is what the handicapper decided, but bear in mind, he probably thinks she is a 148 mare but is accounting for the 7lb mares’ allowance into her rating.

Anyway, this mark got people talking about her for a Festival handicap, notably the County Hurdle.

If you knew she was going to the County off that mark in late February, we can certainly see the angle based on her Triumph run and previous form but, a win this weekend in that weak Grade 2 Mares’ Hurdle at Ascot would likely blow that mark, and there’s absolutely no certainty that she runs in the County.

She’s been kept away from the track until January for a reason. Willie Mullins doesn’t like to ask too much from his ex-juvenile mares in their first season in open company. Would he really want to chuck her into the hustle-and-bustle County Hurdle? We’re not sure.

Furthermore, the Mares’ Hurdle at the Festival is surely more likely? Anyway, that’s our two cents.

Talking of the County, Newland has hopes for his recent qualifier MIRABAD.

He absolutely bolted up at Cheltenham in December, and with a 10lb hike allocated onto his shoulders, it could be straight to the County for him. Dr Richard Newland said: “He’s got an entry in the old Betfair Hurdle but he’ll only run in that if the ground is suitable, which I think is a long shot as he likes better ground, otherwise I think he’ll be directed at the County Hurdle – assuming he gets in,” said Newland.

“Normally, you wouldn’t want a 10lb rise but we needed it. He’s come out of the race well, he’s in super form and it’s just a question of giving him his chance in a top race where conditions are optimal.

“He would have got in the County Hurdle last year off his mark but not the previous year, so it’s not a done deal that he gets in.

“We’re almost certainly looking at the big spring targets now, like the County, either the Scottish Champion Hurdle or the Swinton or Aintree – we think he’s good enough to take his chance in those kinds of races.”

We like the bullishness but we don’t like his pedigree – there will be big amount in the field better bred to do the jumping job. That said, he’s unexposed and could be anything, we suppose (but we don’t think that).

Anyway, let’s not forget, they’ve all got the sickly winter horse LANGER DAN to beat!

MARKET MAYHEM

Finally, to further add lighter fluid to the fire that started last night, the Betfair Exchange saw BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD drift to 5.5 for the Mares’ Hurdle sending her backers into complete melt down.

Much to the chagrin of the casher-outers, she’s tightened up a bit this morning however is still readily available at a fair bit bigger than she has been priced at recently.

This can either mean one of two things. She’s either crocked or she’s heading to the Champion Hurdle, and ironically, both of these answers are at completely separate ends of the spectrum. She could be working the house down at home and Gordon Elliott and the two O’Leary brothers have taken brave pills to send her into the Champion Hurdle, or, well, she’s not working at all.

Look, with eight weeks to go until the Festival, not too much money can be laid on the exchange, but it’s notable to see £400< available to lay at around 5.0 for her in the Mares’ Hurdle market. Her price of 6.0 in the Champion Hurdle market is only a few clicks away from her lifetime shortest price of 5.5 as well.

Furthermore, as one horse drifts in the Mares’ Hurdle market, another has shortened as KARGESE is the new favourite. Can anyone tell that we wrote the middle bit of this newsletter a few hours before this section?

It looks like some news could come soon, and it could even be before the DRF, so keep those ears to the ground and those eyes on Racing X…or if you’re like us, don’t because you don’t give two shits about the Cheltenham markets right now and are instead glued to the Newbury card.

RISK ON

After landing a nice drifting double yesterday, today we are punting live at our home track Newbury. Make sure to follow us on X @equinties for our live bets which we’ll try put up in good time - signal allowing. Else where we like:

15.15 SUNSHINE SOUL

Another Boughey shortie but should be a goodie as this girl is supposed to have improved for a little winter break and can break he maiden. Taking on a Burke newcomer, we’re trusting her experience will get the job done. We liked the 3’s last night and she’s been smashed into 11/8 5/4 now shop dependant so either play the single or lever another.

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