Equinties - jumping clues

Gm Equinauts

If you’re a jumps fan, you should know that today’s Bangor and Chepstow cards are head and shoulders above what was displayed at Cheltenham Saturday. There are some nice horses on display, many on the up who will require following.

Plus, Venetia has her first winter runners… the jumps have now well and truly begun.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

ARKLE CREDENTIALS

It’s always fun to look back on Grade 1s from previous jumps seasons and see how the form of the race is working out.

For example, the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle over two miles at the Aintree Grand National festival in 2023 is a sterling race on paper.

We’ll talk about the winner soon, but in descending order, the race has subsequently produced a Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle winner, a Champion Hurdle third, a Gerry Feilden winner, PEMBROKE (average), a Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase runner-up, a Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase runner-up, and a two-time Grade 1 novice chase winner.

The winner of that race was INTHEPOCKET, and he got everyone rather excited for his second season of novice chasing after he bolted up at Wexford over two miles.

He beat the Grade 1 novice hurdle winner FARREN GLORY yesterday by 15 lengths, which on paper looks like good form, but the seven-year-old drifted in the market before the off, so he might have needed the run. Gordon Elliott’s stable form isn’t amazing at the moment either.

However, there’s no denying the manner of the performance and he showed promise on his chasing debut last season behind FACILE VEGA.

One would think that the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase could be a race for him if he came over to the UK for it, but Mark Walsh told Henry de Bromhead that he felt a bit left all the way, so a right-handed track might not be for him.

After all, the Grade 1 two-mile novices’ chase at Christmas in Ireland has been scrapped.

Elsewhere on the Wexford card, HEART WOOD laid down a marker in the 2m7f Listed Michael Hickey Memorial Chase. This was impressive, but the market told a big story before the off.

CORBETTS CROSS drifted, HEART WOOD was smashed, and BUDDY ONE never really got into it.

He could be off to the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices’ Chase if he is still a novice at that time. It’s on November 30th, so it should be his final day as a novice.

He’s a high-class chaser and bolted up off 136 at the DRF in a handicap chase. Smart horse.

GORDON TO WETHERBY

Speaking of the Irish, there could be an early-season raid at Wetherby this weekend from Gordon Elliott with some of his stable stars.

The main one surrounds GERRI COLOMBE as he could line up in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase alongside BRAVEMANSGAME, GREY DAWNING, and IROKO.

Elliott is worried about quick ground conditions at Down Royal this weekend ahead of his intended target of the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase, so a last-minute decision on Wetherby could occur later this week.

The same goes for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD who could kickstart her second season of hurdling in the Listed Mares’ Hurdle at Wetherby.

One would imagine that if both travel over, they will be warm order to win. BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD should be a certainty, but GERRI COLOMBE could have a stiff battle on his first start of the season.

It’s currently good to soft at Wetherby. No rain is forecast but it’s set to be overcast all week.

ALL BETS ARE HEDGED!

CITY OF TROY taking to the dirt this weekend in the Breeders’ Cup Classic is huge.

It’s huge for Coolmore to potentially have a sire that can win on the turf and dirt, it’s huge for racing to have this big star race in what might be his last ever race, on an unproven surface, on foreign soil.

Tom Magnier is certainly excited:

So, ultimately, this weekend is a bit of a make-or-break event for Coolmore, right?

Well, maybe not as much as we first thought.

CITY OF TROY’s biggest rival in the Classic is FIERCENESS, Todd Pletcher’s three-time Grade 1 winner.

However, if he was to down CITY OF TROY on Sunday, Coolmore have hedged their bets by buying 50% of the breeding rights of ‘the horse that beat CITY OF TROY’.

The negotiation has a contingency policy that allows FIERCENESS to run as a four-year-old if Repole Stables want to run him next year, and it should be noted that this deal was negotiated after the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year.

So, it’s Coolmore vs Coolmore on Saturday. Coolmore win.

BUMPERS

BANGOR

DOUGLAS HYDE is a fairly strong fave in this. He is by the same sire as the Tizzard bumper rocket who won on Sunday, TENNESSE TANGO. A reasonably expensive purchase at £85k, he looks the part - but Curtis hasn’t won a bumper for years. That’s a huge worry.

PADDYS POLICY is next in the market repping a yard who do like winning bumpers (and love a Bangor winner) but their lad is not bred for races like this - he’ll perhaps be more suited to a longer trip with obstacles in his way.

The same can be said for SIGN AGAIN who’s sire gets his winners when his progeny get over fences. His dam side brings a little flat action but you have to go quite far back for that! The yard won this race last year however.

IT’S TOP has a nice enough pedigree for a race like this and his trainer, Oliver Signy won the Cheltenham’s October meeting bumper last weekend - so he clearly can ready one.

The other three might struggle in this company.

Verdict: With only 7 runners, you’ll have to be pretty accurate if playing - and we do play bumpers but this is hard so we’ll keep it to minimal, fun stakes. DOUGLAS HYDE is by far the best bred for this race but it’s quite likely Curtis won’t have him properly tuned. We think it could be him or IT’S TOP to play out the finish today. The small stakes plays will be ITS TOP with no surprise if DH wins - he’s the stake saver!

CHEPSTOW

THE FINAL WORD is 2/1 fave here repping the mighty Nicholls yard, who, at the moment, aren’t so ‘mighty’. A nice enough pedigree and already a point winner, yet we think there are ones better bred for this type of race.

The Skelton’s are on fire atm and they have the second fave in A PAI DE NOM. They obviously targeted this lad at the sales as he’s a direct relation to the yard WEST CORK. He’ll be fit and firing for this - the Skelton’s are cleaning up in bumpers this season.

SOBER GLORY is a direct relation to FINGAL BAY who was a brilliant horse. His dam was unproven though so you’d have to watch the market for vibes.

C’EST DIFFERENT reps the Sam Thomas yard who both target bumpers and the track, Chepstow. This lad owns a very flat oriented pedigree and can show up in this race as you now he’ll be off for his life.

CINQUENTA is interesting as has a typical French pedigree and his dam sire MARTALINE is as good as FAME AND GLORY for producing bumper winners. He can run well - the yard target bumpers too.

UNLEASH THE BEAST is another MALINAS for Fergal - they like the sire after their Lady rocket DYSART ENOS has proved quite useful for them! He’s well related and could be anything for a yard who love bumpers.

ALLSTITCHEDUP is very interesting contender for Pipe and one two for the owners Brocade who only buy good NH horses. Loads of bumper winners on the page albeit moderate … but still, bumper winners! His half brother races in the 15.10.

The rest will struggle to win.

Verdict: Nicholls has won this race four times in recent years with rockets such as CAPTAIN BELLAMY and STAGE STAR - we’re not sure his is point winner is going to be as good as that so will take on with an ew swing at a bigger price. 11/1 ALLSTITCHEDUP has the right pedigree for a race like this is the vote in a notebook worthy race!

BUMPER RESULTS

03/10/24 KAYLAN 2/1 (11/8 SP) - 1st

08/10/24 LAURA LOU 11/1 & PLAYAWAY GIRL 14/1 - 6th & 9th

09/10/24 JOTO 2/1 6th

09/10/24 ID GO MANIAC 5/2 - 4th

12/10/24 MONEYGARROW 5/1 (13/8 SP) - 1st

16/10/24 KINGSLEY 7/1 - 8th

18/10/24 STRONG RUN 5/1 - 2nd

22/10/24 SECRET SNIPER 5/1 - 3rd

23/10/24 THE LONG WALK 100/30 - 3rd

27/10/24 SIOG GEAL 5/2 - 2nd

27/10/24 QUINNS REWARD 9/1 (14/1 SP) - 7th

27/10/24 TENNESSE TANGO 9/1 (12/1 SP) - 1st

RISK ON

We were right with BELGRAVE yesterday and we took advantage of the little drift before the off (as we sad we would before anyone says he was just lev!). We thought our 7/1 treble was basically home and hosed but Hector Crouch stuffed that up.

12.40 FARANDAWAY

At 10/11, this lad is leverage today for another bet. If you can take evens (only currently available on the machine) then he is a single too. It’s an incredibly poor maiden and this lad is supposed to be an 85 horse so should win on the bridle.

There is some brilliant racing today and we will post our bets on our X account @equinties.

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