Equinties - big call

Gm Equinauts

We’ve noticed increasing use of dangerous rhetoric used amongst punters in racing bubbles on social media. Terms like ‘all in’ and ‘wheel barrow’ jobs are floated around all to often, some accounts putting this description to their tips on a daily basis.

Win, they look like punting Gods. Lose, they’ll put up the next horse and go again without any consideration to the ramifications of the behaviour they are enforcing.

We love to bet but we don’t think there is a bet every day, let alone ‘all in jobs’ and long term readers of this publication will appreciate we have never and will never use language which effectively translates to too much risk on.

Betting is hard and staying liquid is key. We don’t keep a P&L, we’ve been betting since we were children visiting Newmarket eating sausage rolls on blankets in the car park, we know when we’re winning or losing and for a long time betting the right horses has supplemented pleasures in life.

But we are fastidious at keeping a bank.

It cannot be overstated how important it is to maintaining a betting bank and with that stake accordingly on a percentage basis. We can go a week without a winner but the bank allows that. When the pot builds from a series of winners, we stick to the same protocol and look to spend the extra. You should see betting as a means to pay for nice meals, holidays and luxuries supplemented by gambling.

We look forward to waking up to read the cards. If there isn’t a bet, we leave it and get out the racing bubble but when we find one, we stake sensibly with a view to the long term.

If you haven’t got a betting bank, you shouldn’t be betting. It’s that simple.

Let’s go back to the ‘all in, wheel barrow job’ tipsters. What does that even mean - a hail Mary, every last note the book allows stake?

Surely not, but still the language is stupid. It’s reckless and it isn’t sustainable should new comers to the game follow suit.

How many ‘all in’ losers can you have before you’re liquidated!? Well, technically… one.

Thriving from betting long terms comes from keeping a bank and playing your singles with conviction but within the parameters your bank allows. The acca’s, although fun, won’t pay long term. Singles for a pro, acca’s for show. It’s boring but it works.

With a massive meeting like Aintree coming up, you might be asking how you approach such betting events.

Well, if you’ve gone ‘all in’ on one at Wolves on a Monday and it gets stuff, you’re not paying Aintree at all. But for the non-idiot amongst you, you’ll be wondering how best to play the balances on account or the cash stashed away in your sock drawer where your other half can’t find it.

Big meetings should be played two ways. Like a pro or for fun. Don’t sniff at the latter - if betting isn’t fun, don’t do it.

To keep a big meeting fun, pull a bank from your bank, if that makes sense. Take Cheltenham for example. You’re often with your mates watching the flagship meeting, it’s fun to bet every race. We pull a ‘Cheltenham bank’ from the bank main. In money terms? That might look like 10% (MAX) of the main for the week, so a £1k meeting bank pulled from your £10k bank means for £250 for every day of Cheltenham. Some punters will have varying views on split. Once that’s gone, there is no chasing.

Then there’s the pro way of approaching a big meeting (often adopted by the serious recreational punter) where they’ll look to exercise the majority of their bank main to take advantage of market liquidity. Disciplined pro’s might have a bet or two a day, some even stretch that out of the whole week and stake bigger than normal because they can get on.

Want to start playing like a pro? Watch most of Aintree with you hands in your pocket.

We digress now, but in short we’re seeing too much guff from racing themed accounts who realistically don’t have that much skin in the game, glamourising big stakes gambling. That’s not right.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

BIG CALL

Why, why, why, LULAMBA?

As we mentioned briefly yesterday, the great and the good from Racing X were dusting off their best Tom Jones impressions to ask why Nicky Henderson had ruined their ante-post dreams.

Well, the boss of Seven Barrows has responded, and it comes down to one thing in his mind – trip.

Triumph Hurdle winners - or in LULAMBA’s case, Triumph Hurdle runner-ups – tend to need further in time. TIGER ROLL is the big example, but even placed horses like FIL DOR, SALVER, HAUT EN COULEURS, and GUITAR PETE have all gone on to run over further distances.

However, rarely do we see these Triumph Hurdle runners step up in distance in the same season because, well, all the Grade 1 juvenile events at Aintree and Punchestown are over two miles.

So, with Nicky Henderson deciding to send LULAMBA out of juvenile company and up in trip, we have a step into the unknown on our hands. It’s almost very un-Nicky Henderson like.

So, what’s the reasoning? Well, Henderson said: "It was an idea which occurred to me. Aintree's a sharp track and he's a big horse, I was wondering who would run in the two-and-a-half and what we're really after is the extra half a mile. I just think it'll help him.

"Aintree's such a speed track and he's a big boy. He needed all of the hill to bring him into the race at Cheltenham, which it did and he got his head in front, it's just unfortunate he got mugged on the blind side in the last stride as he couldn't see him. But the hill helped him a lot.

"Two miles there will be sharp enough for him, and four-year-olds get a 10lb allowance and at this time of year that's considerable. It also gives him another two days from Cheltenham to recover and when you put all the pros and cons of the two races together, we came down in favour of the two-and-a-half."

It is an interesting move, but with the benefit of not having backed him for the 4YO race (we were damn close!), the make-up of him does suggest further would work.

Let's look at his Triumph Hurdle run. He sat prominently and waited nicely around the bend. EAST INDIA ROCK tried to use his speed around the bend, and he did get a few lengths of LULAMBA, but Henderson’s juvenile sat close enough and waited to pounce. That suggests stamina.

Furthermore, ‘if’ Nico de Boinville did get there a bit too soon in the Triumph, this further suggests that he can stay a bit further to get his jockey out of trouble. He probably did get there a touch too soon, but it wasn’t that bad.

Nicky has put his big boy pants on to make this decision and for his bravery, we think that’s the right word, LULAMABA gets a 10lbs allowance to aid his bid versus his elders in the likes of ROMEO COOLIO, KOKTAIL DIVIN and HORACES PEAR.

THE GROUND

We want to talk about the potential ground at Aintree this week. It’ll be quick.

If the racecourse was left to its natural state, it would be like a road, so they’ve obviously watered, but by how much have they watered?

If you read racing pundit Tony Calvin’s Twitter regularly, you’ll see that he has a pop at racecourses and the BHA for the lack of updates regarding watering, specifically the volume of water that clerk of the courses chuck on. He’s been so fixated on ground and watering that even Paddy Power took the piss out of him!

We’re as much a stickler for accurate going readings as much as Calvin to be fair and we got an update on the Nicky Luck podcast yesterday morning rather than an official update from the BHA (which is pretty poor).

So it’s good to soft, good in places on the Mildmay course and good to soft on the National course. That’s pretty much what is expected, but with blazing sun and a quick draining track, Jon Pullin will have a tough time of things on his hands.

So, who does this ground count against? We have a list, but let's just look at day one.

GIDLEIGH PARK due to his size, LIVE CONTI due to his French breeding, and SPILLANE’S TOWER due to previous comments from Jimmy Mangan. We’ll elaborate more on this in Thursday’s newsletter, where we’ll preview every race of the Aintree Grand National meeting

THE SKELTON PLOT

Dan Skelton and Aintree plots are almost as common as Dan Skelton’s Cheltenham plots!

Last year, he correctly plotted KATEIRA to win the 2m4f handicap hurdle and GWENNIE MAY BOY was an impressive winner of the 3m handicap hurdle. KATEIRA even had the eventual Arkle winner, JANGO BAIE, behind her that day!

Are there any to watch for this year? Well, rewatching a few clips from the recent Road To Aintree – which took place at Skelton’s yard – there could be one horse.

The horse is MR HOPE STREET who will go to the 3m handicap hurdle.

In this short clip on Racing TV’s Twitter, Harry Skelton says the reason he hasn’t been seen since Christmas is “by design of the trainer” with his brother, Dan, nodding at the statement.

“He definitely wants a step up to three,” Dan mentioned to Lydia Hislop and Ruby Walsh as well.

He’s like BE AWARE for the Skeltons, and he’s not really like KATEIRA from last year. This horse is an improver who has been kept away in order not to potentially ruin his mark, whereas KATEIRA dropped through the handicap last season before landing her handicap target in Liverpool.

He would have to enter calculations if you trust Dan to execute his plan right.

Elsewhere, the Skeltons now have a great chance of landing not just one but two Grade 1s on the opening day. GREY DAWNING was the obvious one last week, but LIVE CONTI is now a proper player in the 4YO Hurdle with the lack of LULAMBA.

This could be a proper Aintree for the Skelton’s. They’ve certainly plotted a few! Be sure to read our Aintree content starting tomorrow!

RISK ON

One bet, one PU yesterday as KINGLEY KNIGHT was held up in rear and never put in the race! We do believe he is a winner in waiting and will watch his future entries. We have several good bets tomorrow but we’re dealing with today first and will play a couple to take advantage of the

14.25 LAND AFAR

A winner for us last year. Back on quick ground, this horse should be a class apart and 10/11 is a very good price - we think he should be 3/1 on. In fact, the price is so good we’re actually wondering what we’re missing. We have played a single (NOT all in ffs) and will add to another.

15.45 STRAW FAN JACK

Last chance saloon for this lad, if he can’t win today then he never will. He’s the same horse as the odds on fave but carrying a stone less. Last year would have been carrying the same weight. He’s plummeted down the weights owed to poor efforts with excuses 0 namely the heat of Cheltenham and bad ground. He gets his ground today. No excuses. 9/2 win.

15.55 SEEYOUINMYDREAMS

A bit of an enigma, this girl either gets shafted or canters in. She’s a very ground dependant girl and when she’s ‘feeling herself’ is a weapon of distance bet destruction! We think Nicholls has a good day today and in this field, with the ground in her favour, 2/1 is a half bet on the basis we’re trusting today is the day.

16.15 D DAY ARVALENREEVA

Rocketed home last time out and looked firmly on the up. This is a poor race. Fly in the ointment is Evan Williams and if we se a significant squeeze from 16’s will hedge small otherwise we’re happy to bet the fave at 6/5.

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YOUNG BLOOD

We’ll continue with the bumper previews as and when they pop up but this time of year is all about the 2yo’s - so we’re bringing YOUNG BLOOD back and we go all the way up to Musselburgh for todays action:

14.07 MUSSELBURGH

A trappy little heat this one.

In typical fashion, the market is siding with Burke’s 2yo, a filly by KODI BEAR. She only cost 8k (her dam has only produced an average winner to date) but with such few runners in the race, could be well placed and you know will be revved up for today more than most.

Hugo Palmer runs ARDISIA, a colt by ARDAD. He has a similar nick to ROOM SERVICE who was a good 2yo and is a half to an 80 rated 2yo. Player.

FILLY FODEN is another ARDAD, this time a filly. Her siblings needed further but her dam was a winner over 7f on quick. Another player (the market suggests this is a tight race).

DANDY SPEED arguably has the best pedigree being by rocket sire DANDY MAN but only cost 7k at a yearling sale over in Ireland. Out nice and early as must be small.

Verdict: horribly trappy race this with out a standout pedigree. Given the market is so open we feel there is no ‘good’ horse in this race and they’re all out early to try pick up a weak pot. We’ll go with the colt in the forefront of the market, ARDISIA - but no strong view and not a race we will follow the form of.