Equinties - ante-post fools

Author

BGP Capital
April 01, 2025

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Dear oh dear, LULAMBA not declared for the Aintree’s juvenile event is top tier trolling by Hendo… on April Fools Day no less.

You couldn’t write it. Ante-post backers can only laugh or they’ll cry and the memes are popping!

As fellow punters, we shouldn’t laugh but you have to admit, racing X is a brilliant, brilliant place during moments like this.

Anyway, let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

ROLE REVERSAL

Last week, we would have bet that BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD would run in the Aintree Hurdle and LOSSIEMOUTH could miss the race. Now, there’s been a role reversal with the Irish-trained mares as BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD won’t come to Aintree with LOSSIEMOUTH an intended runner.

Disappointing. 2m4f around Aintree looked to be right up her street, and connections even admitted that a left-handed track suits her better than the right-handed nature of Punchestown.

Why isn’t she going to run? Not good enough? No, it’s what we have all feared regarding the 2025 Aintree Grand National Festival: the turnaround from Cheltenham.

Gordon Elliott said: "Aintree is just coming too soon for Brighterdaysahead, unfortunately. She wasn't herself in the Champion Hurdle – I could tell that from a very early stage – and it just wouldn't be the right thing to do for her to travel over to Aintree. She's still a young mare with her whole career in front of her.

"We'll get her ready for Punchestown instead. There's a nice break between Cheltenham and Punchestown, so we have another few weeks with her. She will either run in the Champion Hurdle or the Mares' Hurdle there."

In the same Racing Post article, it was confirmed that Willie Mullins had told the Post that LOSSIEMOUTH is targeting Aintree. Bosh.

There will be pretty much no excuses for LOSSIEMOUTH at Aintree. She gets her trip, a Flat track suits, and good ground is absolutely no issue.

Even though Mullins has seemingly confirmed that she is going to run, Joe Chambers – racing manager to Rich Ricci – was up for stirring the pot on X last night.

If LOSSIEMOUTH does go, which is still not a total certainty considering this is Willie Mullins, this sets up a lovely match in the Aintree Hurdle. Yes, anything can happen (GOLDEN ACE, for example), but WODHOOH, JIMMY DU SEUIL, and KITZBUHEL shouldn’t really win this.

If they do line up, who are you with - CONSTITUTION HILL or LOSSIEMOUTH?

TAKING HITS

If we’re not careful, the 2000 Guineas could turn into an average race this year. Not like there’s anything anyone can do about it; horses are tricky animals, and they can suffer setbacks at any time, it’s just frustrating.

ANCIENT TRUTH, the leading Godolphin hope for the first Classic of the year, is out of the race.

The boys in blue have a strong team on paper for the 2000 Guineas, though ANCIENT TRUTH looked like a solid one. He won the Superlative over seven furlongs and SHADOW OF LIGHT, despite winning the Dewhurst, still has question marks regarding a well-run one-mile trip.

Best of luck to ANCIENT TRUTH in his recovery. Let’s hope we can see him on track soon, but the ambiguity of the update from Godolphin is a concern.

Looking at the field, TWAIN is still inexperienced with slightly unproven form, EXPANDED falls into the same inexperienced category, COSMIC YEAR is even more inexperienced with just the one run, and OPERA BALLO has just all-weather appearances.

SCORTHY CHAMP and HENRI MATISSE, as already discussed, look like well-considered options, but the former is going straight to the race.

The race is certainly competitive. It’s 6/1 the field compared to last year’s 8/15-shot CITY OF TROY, and coherent cases can be made for plenty in the contest. It’s shaping up to be a fascinating race, even if it is lacking a few of last year’s two-year-old stars.


THE BEST OF THE REST?

It’s funny how races just work out, year-on-year. We’re not talking about Cheltenham or Aintree races as they tend to go well, obviously, but some races away from the big spring festivals have a great track record.

Case and point, the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase.

In recent years, winners have run in the small field contests on potentially desperate ground and have maybe been overlooked in the next few runs however, the race has a great track record.

BRISTOL DE MAI in 2016, DEFI DU SEUIL in 2019, L’HOMME PRESSE in 2022, and GERRI COLOMBE in 2023 are just some recent examples. Even BEST MATE won the race in 2001!

However, it’s not necessarily just the winners either. DJELO placed in 2024, PIC D’ORHY finished third in 2022, LOSTINTRANSLATION chased home DEFI DU SEUIL in 2019, and CYRNAME was beaten in 2018.

So, what about this year? Well, it’s already produced the Arkle winner in JANGO BAIE, who is set to contest the Manifesto Novices’ Chase on Thursday, and the winner could be heading elsewhere to take down a Grade 1 over three miles.

That’s right, HANDSTANDS is a likely runner in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase on Friday, and he is currently the favourite.

The reason for the step up in trip? One word - ground.

Ben Pauling said: “At the moment, I’d be leaning towards the three-miler. With the ground given as it is, I think we’d probably be better over three than two and a half.

“It’s not that I don’t think he’d be able to run very well over two and a half, I think on this ground he’d be more suited by three.

“He has a lot of tactical speed and running him in the Scilly Isles, I know the ground might not have suited Jango Baie but he was good enough to win an Arkle, so I don’t think two and a half miles is done with, but on this ground I think three miles would be definitely the way I’ll be leaning.”

So, is he a worthy favourite? Yes. DANCING CITY and STELLAR STORY have ground concerns, CALDWELL POTTER is also stepping up in trip, JANGO BAIE is going elsewhere, IMPAIRE ET PASSE might also be going to the Manifesto, and the rest are big prices.

It looks like a bit of a match between CALDWELL POTTER and HANDSTANDS, both of whom have soft ground form and some bits of fast ground form. We’ve already talked about CALDWELL POTTER stepping up in trip due to his pedigree, so a clash between the two could be quite interesting.

RISK ON

A bad days racing really. We thought LOUD AND PROUD could follow up her last time out win but the market is siding fairly heavily with JP’s horse carrying little weight so we’ll leave that. There is one that has caught our eye which we will chance:

14.52 KINGLY FIGHTER

This market is dominated by Moore’s GRAHAM who was a big gamble last time. He made a bad mistake that day which threw his race away but it was still a poor heat and at 6/4, makes a nice market to take him on.

KINGLY FIGHTER has had three quiet runs, the second of which was in the deep end in a Newbury class 3 - easy to hide. His latest run a couple of week ago saw him go off 200/1 where he was ridden cold and never put in the race by Tom Bellamy who spent the last part of the race flapping his arms with no real conviction. You can always tell when a horse is still full of running by the way it jumps - he was taking off from a good stride and making a lovely shape. Clearly out for a jog. Whether today is the day or not, the market will speak before the off but this is a bad race full of horses bred for the flat, not the jumps. This lad is bred to be a better jumper than the field and, whenever he is ‘off’, will prove well handicapped. 12/1 is a ‘let’s see if we’re right’ bet with a view to follow him should today not be the day. If he’s not off and you’re going to be upset - do not play this horse!

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