Equinties - a good Brocklesby

Gm Equinauts

We’re kicking off this newsletter with a big shout out to Hollie Doyle who landed her 1000th winner yesterday, making her only the second female in the country ever to do it!

Congratulations, Hollie Doyle. You’re a brilliant role model in sport.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

ANOTHER CONTENDER

Forget Cheltenham, all of a sudden, the Aintree Hurdle could be one of the races of the season. We already have CONSTITUTION HILL confirmed, BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD is on the way, and now, LOSSIEMOUTH could also be heading to Aintree.

Now, if we’re being honest, the chat behind LOSSIEMOUTH isn’t as strong as the other two, but the seeds of thought have been planted by Patrick Mullins.

As we said yesterday, this could be great. Not only could we see BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD and CONSTITUTION HILL put their Cheltenham performances behind them, but we could also get the ‘should-have-been-in-the-Champion-Hurdle-but-we’ll-back-her-in-the-mares-happily’ horse LOSSIEMOUTH in the picture.

Having not run in the Champion Hurdle, the two-time Mares’ Hurdle winner would get to run in a competitive race against industry-leading horses over a distance she is used to.

We hope we get this clash, and if we do, it will be very interesting to see how LOSSIEMOUTH runs even if we think she has a bit to find. She was very impressive in the Mares’ Hurdle, but she was always going to be if she simply turned up.

It’s hard to get away from the negative comments that were said about her in the lead-up to Cheltenham, not by pundits but by her own connections!

What should also be noted is just how many Cheltenham runners have been pencilled in for Liverpool. We thought Aintree might suffer this year with the short turnaround, but we could get these three in the Aintree Hurdle as well as TEAHUPOO in the Liverpool Hurdle, VANILLIER in the Grand National, and LATENIGHTPASS in the Topham.

Perhaps it was the good ground that has meant all of the top horses have come out well?

A GOOD BROCKLESBY

For a long time the Brocklesby has signalled the start of the flat season and we love it.

We’ve especially loved it the last few years as the ground has been terrible and the the punting was easy; last year’s Brocklesby was run on soft and 2023 was run on heavy (remember when we cleaned up with DODDIES IMPACT and VADREAM in the Cammidge!?).

This meeting might be a little different.

The ground is currently good to soft, soft in places thanks to 3.6mm of rain over the weekend but there are chances of showers on Friday and Saturday. If we were to guess, we think the ground will be good to soft, maybe quicker. Even if the ground dries all the way to ‘good’, it won’t be proper summer good ground. Doncaster this time of year should run on the slower side.

So who are the horses to look out for this Saturday at Donny?

Well, with quite a few of the horses dominating the 14.25 Cammidge market needing slower ground, IBERIAN catches the eye. He was a classy juvenile in 2023, and he landed the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster over one furlong further than the Cammidge. Having had a run at Southwell in December, Charlie Hills has been planning back from this weekend for a while, so if you like him, you know he’ll be in his best form.

Speaking to At The Races, he said: “I think it will have done his confidence some good, it was great to see him get his head in front on the all-weather and it has been the plan to run him in the Cammidge for a while.

“We don’t know what the ground is going to be like yet, but we’re happy with him and it looks like the ground should be OK by the weekend so the plan is to run.

“It’s the place where he put up his best performance, so that has to be a plus.”
Last year really didn’t go to plan for him. He was poor in the Guineas and that continued to his Group 1 Prix Jean Prat run.

Hills was very vocal about how much he thought of him as a juvenile, and if he retains any of the ability that saw him beat SUNWAY and finish second to HAATEM as a two-year-old, he should go close.

For the opener, the Brocklesby, the market is headed by, yep you guessed it, an Amo horse. Get used to used to it, they’ll target most of these early 2yo races. Connections won this race in 2022 with PERSIAN FORCE (we backed) and now they’re repped by NORMAN’S CAY. He’s speedily bred by SIOUX NATION out of a mare by ACCLAMATION. You know he’ll be primed for it it and the market is shouting for him.

So who can beat him?

Well last years winning training Cunha has the second fave in KAMAKAMELEON. He’s by new sire KAMEKO and has stamina dam side which, although doesn’t scream Brocklesby horse, he’s reportedly working very well and better than last years winner!

As for the rest, do NOT miss our Brocklesby meeting previews Saturday.

JUDDMONTE DREAMS

On Tuesday, we started talking about the Guineas, notably regarding Aidan O’Brien and his potential runners on the Rowley Mile.

We also spoke about COSMIC YEAR, an impressive Sandown maiden winner last year, who could be heading to Newmarket at the start of May for Juddmonte and Harry Charlton.

Charlton gave an update on the horse in January, and we now have a more recent piece of news regarding the horse from Juddmonte’s racing manager Barry Mahon. As well as him, Mahon has also provided details on a few of their other Classic contenders.

He said: “We’ve a few heading to trials. I think Field Of Gold will probably go to Newmarket for the Craven and Cosmic Year and Jonquil could go for the Greenham (at Newbury), so that’ll tell us where we’re going.

“Cosmic Year has only run once so he needs the experience and Jonquil won his maiden and it was a bit of a non-event the next day. With him changing trainer as well, we’d just like to see him on track.

“Field Of Gold is in good shape and could go straight to the Guineas, but I think John is keen to give him a run in a trial and see how he’s progressed.”

Interestingly, the half brother to sire TIME TEST, COSMIC YEAR, has shortened notably in the last day or so for the 2000 Guineas. He was always likely to come in when the news regarding THE LION IN WINTER came through, but he is a few points shorter than he was on Monday night.

The KINGMAN colt looked very good in September, but he was clearly a bit of a late bloomer as a juvenile. Charlton was slightly windy about his Guineas credentials when speaking to Racing TV in January, but that was just due to his inexperience. That’s fair.

His run in the Greenham will tell a lot, but if a horse like him is going to win a Guineas, this year might just be the one for him. It looks like a pretty open race.

As for the 1000 Guineas squad, Mahon continued: “Red Letter, subject to the owners agreeing to it, is probably most likely to head straight to Newmarket, and Tabiti and Zanzoun will both probably run in fillies’ trials.

“With Tabiti, I think it’s more about learning her trip, whether she’s going to get a mile or not. We probably didn’t conclusively learn that last year.
“Zanzoun won her maiden well and is probably not Guineas level at this stage, but we’ll let her take her chance in a trial and see how we go.”

More: https://www.racingtv.com/news/juddmonte-colts-poised-to-put-classic-credentials-on-trial

RISK ON

No luck with our bet yesterday as only one leg of the treble hit which was the very nice Balding horse, TURQUINO, for the Mariscotti’s (think COLTRANE).

Today we anticipate to have much better luck in:

14.45 YOU DECIDE

We backed the Gary Moore IM YOUR BUCKAROO against this last time - both were gambles and Pauling’s beat us. Even with the swing in the weights we think Pauling’s edges this race so we’re going to back him to follow up and split stake with a 9/1 forecast with Moore’s. Two small bets here. Pauling for a good day.

16.55 SHAMEFUL & 17.30 FEARNOT

We backed both of these lads on debut. SHAMEFUL at Newbury and FERNOT most recently when her won at a nice price when coming from from the clouds. We think both can beat the Balding hot shots today. Contrary to FEARNOT’s name, we do fear the money for Balding’s horses today so we’re reducing the stakes making them small singles and doubles at 4/1. SHAMEFUL is a bigger single than FEARNOT.

WE HAVE PAID THOUSANDS IN WINNING COMPETITION BETS THIS MONTH, SUBSCRIBE BELOW TO ENTER TODAYS BUMPER COMPETITION!

BUMPER

Two shorties won the bumpers yesterday which we thought would happen but we tried to find a bit of value in the market. The horses we picked will most likely win their next bumpers. Another two bumpers today and Ben Pauling heads both markets…

MARKET RASEN

Ban Pauling runs UPTOWN DANDY who was our vote last time. The ground was heavy that day and he’s not the biggest horse so today’s quicker going will see him run much better. Leading contender hence the odds on.

ON TO THE ROUGE is by a sire we don’t know much about owed to his premature death. He himself was by FRANKEL so we’re not sure this sort of race is suited. He’s getting backed though.

PLAINS DRIFTER reps Fergal O’Brien who’s bumper runners are looking like they need the run. We think this lad has a winning pedigree but in his right conditions - soft!

GOLDEN WHIRL has a nice pedigree, by GOLDEN HORN and a half to 100 rated CICERO’S GIFT. This is one to watch in the market should he have the stamina to get this trip. Ground should be okay. This horse could be one to follow for later for sure.

GREEDY SMITH is one of the biggest drifters of the day and that’s a red flag given his pedigree. Potentially one for staying races later down the line.

Verdict: We think UPTOWN DANDY should win this back on good ground.

HEREFORD

JIMBO SPORT is Paulings second bumper shortie. The market is shouting for him. His pedigree is nice enough for jumps but it’s not littered with bumper winners being French. That said, Pauling can work magic with his bumper horses.

Weston has been busy in bumper recently, quite clearly steering his business to the pinhooking model. OUT THE MIST has a very nice pedigree being out of a half to BALLYCASEY who was a very smart horse for Rich Ricci and Mullins. Contender.

Hendo’s SOLDIER SAINT is by new sire ORDER OF ST GEORGE. He ran terribly on debut and needs to forget that. One to take on until we’ve seen something.

KING SACRE, GOOD BUY DOLLY, GIMARIAS and GOWER SPIRIT look ones for later down the line unless the latter for Henrietta Knight improves for the ground.

Verdict: Pauling could have a BIG day with several shorties looking to oblige and JIMBO SPORT looks the likely winner according to the market, but Weston’s OUT THE MIST is a huge danger on pedigree. Between those two we think!

We should have just banged in the shortie bumper double yesterday and that same bet is tempting today but we will take one of Pauling’s on!

COMPETITION BET: We’ve stuck £100 on UPTOWN DANDY to win doubled with