Equinties - 2023

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Gm Equinauts

Well, 2022 was a mad year in the horse racing world.

We’ve seen Shiskin bottoming himself to beat Energumene in the Clarence House, Gosden sacking Frankie for less than 48 hours, flat superstar Baaeed retire, Mullins’ 13 race win Festival domination, Her Majesty The Queen dying, Consitution Hill crowned new King of jumps, Soumillon and Hannagan basically commit attempted murder, top trainers retire but new ones like Harry Derham and Charlie Johnston start up on their own, races abandoned due to slippery bends in the summer and freezing ground in the winter, Sam Waley Cohen retiring after his Grand National gamble, Cheltenham remains 4 days, a crap Derby…

The list of racing ups and downs goes on but it’s one constant is this newsletter - in your inbox Monday to Saturday, giving you everything you need to know about racing and enjoying it.

Now, for the first time this year - let’s dive in.

Headline Roundup

NEW YEAR’S DAY PREVIEW 

Grade 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase 

Following HERMES ALLEN’s emphatic victory yesterday, Sir Alex Fergusson, Paul Nicholls, and Harry Cobden are looking to land a Graded double today as MONMIRAL heads the market for The Dipper at a drifting 7/4.

The six-year-old ran into JONBON on chasing debut lto (was well beaten) and missed his rematch with the Arkle favourite in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase last month… wise decision… what’s the point?

The six-year-old steps up in trip today, a tactical move I’m sure will be enjoyed by MONMIRAL given his lack of pace lto, but he has been fairly stuffed on his last four starts and hasn’t seen the winner’s enclosure for over a year. 

Olly Murphy’s THUNDER ROCK is different on the other hand as he is the next best in the market following his six victories from his last seven runs. 

He swept SOLO aside with ease lto, a horse who went on to finish second to BALCO COSTAL at Kempton, and he’s officially rated two pounds better than MONMIRAL having risen 28lbs in roughly a year – he’s unexposed over this distance and would handle most grounds. 

Elsewhere, THE REAL WHACKER was a winner at the November meeting for Patrick Neville over three miles – he returns over a shorter distance, a potential question mark in the company. 

Our view: MONMIRAL form behind Paddy Power’s Arkle winner, JONBON, is the form to beat but visually I think he looks a bit of a boat… real Santini vibes. I think second fave THUNDER ROCK is the one and if he gets squeezed to fave then he’s probably a bet.

Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle 

This year’s Relkeel Hurdle looks like one of the more competitive renewals we have seen in this race for a number of years as last season’s Mares Hurdle winner, MARIE’S ROCK, is making her seasonal debut for Nicky Henderson and Nico de Boinville. 

Henderson has said that he picked this race out for her a few months ago and this is being used as a test to see if she is a Stayers Hurdle horse – sounds bullish. 

She is a class animal and receives her mares’ allowance from the rest of the field – can she make this her fourth victory in a row? 

The most dangerous rival to her looks to be November’s Greatwood Hurdle winner I LIKE TO MOVE IT on his first try at 2m4f. 

He galloped through the line whilst carrying 12-stone to beat the well-handicapped GIN COCO and ran to an RPR of 160 – carrying just 11-4 today, something that does matter when it comes to these Graded races, he looks sure to go close at a course he loves. 

Last year, BREWIN’UPASTORM fell at the last when looking like the winner for Aidan Coleman and Olly Murphy – he returns to the race this year and trainer Olly Murphy is hopeful that he can run a big race. 

Our view: I LIKE TO MOVE IT loves Cheltenham (he’s 3 from 5) and he’s gone fave but boy is this a tough race. We’ve got FIRST STREET who’s form with STATE MAN looks banging, KNAPPERS HILL who’s 4 from 4 and the mighty BREWINUPASTORM. No Irish luckily this year so our hat tentatively hangs on KNAPPERS HILL because the gamble on him lto against SCEAU ROYAL suggests he’s going to keep on improving. No bet.

New Year’s Day Handicap Chase 

Following the abandonment in December, today’s big Cheltenham handicap chase is the first 2m4f handicap chase of the year at Cheltenham that occurs on the New Course, the same course and distance as the Grade 3 Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. 

With no COOLE CODY in the race, Evan Williams is represented by COCONUT SPLASH this year to try and emulate his stablemate’s heroics over this course and distance – this horse has moved in from 16/1 to 10/1 recently and he is on his lowest handicap mark for two years.  

At the top of the market, IL RIDOTO heads the field for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. 

The five-year-old chaser was fourth in the Paddy Power in November and was dropped a pound for the run – today is his second run after a wind-op but he has yet to win a race since his handicap chase victory off an eight-pound lower mark last year. 

A horse who loves Cheltenham and was going well in the Paddy Power before unseating his rider was STOLEN SILVER, a horse who was fourth in the Plate at the Festival and won at the April meeting last year by 11 lengths – he beat SIMPLY THE BETTS that day, who reopposes today, and another bold showing should be enough to see him go close.

Our view: I couldn’t give af about races like this. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll watch them but never will they carry my money. Far too many horses, far too competitive - there’s easier yield. That said, despite big price, STOLEN SILVER is the horse to beat with MIDNIGHT RIVER and BRAVE SEASCA main dangers.

Grade 3 Savills New Year’s Day Chase 

Tramore’s highlight race of the season is without AL BOUM PHOTO for the first time in five years, however, the top of the market is very similar to previous renewals as Willie Mullins is set to field the odds-on favourite with STATTLER. 

The eight-year-old beat RUN WILD FRED comfortably in the National Hunt Chase at the Festival and began his season in 2021 over 2m5f to beat FIGHTER ALLEN at Fairyhouse, so this step down in trip to 2m6f shouldn’t be an issue. 

Priced up at 16/1 for the Gold Cup already, you’d be hoping he can get the job done today. 

Speaking of the Gold Cup, a former winner of the blue ribboned event, MINELLA INDO, is the next best in the market making his seasonal debut. 

The now 10-year-old has been fairly consistent for connections since that win having finished second in the recent Gold Cup after his second in the Irish Gold Cup – his fto record isn’t amazing and he has a younger pretender the race against.  

Can his experience shine through? 

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Bumper previews

Exeter

Nicholls’ has been smashed into 2/5 which is rare in bumpers. He’s a half to some useful horses, namely MRS HYDE and market says this could be a distance job.

Cheltenham

Nicholls’ heading the market AGAIN. New year, same old bumper market. This lad is a half bro to the yards THYME WHITE. He’s got to beat King’s DANCING IN BRAZIL at 3/1 who, although won only a shit bumper lto, he’s well bred and should improve. The only other contender I can spot in this race (on blood only) is McCain’s DOYEN gelding, DINO BELLAGIO. He won a fair bumper lto and is obviously fancied for McCain to visit Cheltenham today. This is a tough bumper and without risk on, I’d probably (stupidly) go against Nicholls (even though I think he as a great day) and side with King’s BLUE BRESIL gelding, DANCING IN BRAZIL.

Risk on

14.20 REVASSER 

Stinks of a plot for Wadham who won this race last year. Have been tracking this lad since he won his bumper and should be well in off this mark now stepped up in trip. 13/2 taken, I’d play to 4’a for the ew to nothing.