Equinties - the Cheltenham paradox

Gm Equinauts

There are many paradoxes in racing that make sense, for example ‘less is more’ is an adage remembered by both trainer and punters alike to avoid the disastrous consequences which might happen when overworking either a horse or an overactive betting trigger finger.

But there is one behavioural trait of a punter which despite it’s contradictory consequences, proves true again and again - to observe the Cheltenham markets so much that all the other markets are missed.

In perfect paradoxical fashion, many won’t know they’re even doing it!

CONSTITUTION HILL was available at 11/10 on Boxing day for his comeback run in the Christmas hurdle, SIR GINO was available at a similar price the next day. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS was 4/5 in a 9 runner field, he is now almost the same price for a 25 runner market in 3 months time.

You’ll appreciate the point we’re trying to make here, the prices of some winning horses this week were as generous as the performances were breath-taking and we imagine punters will be kicking themselves for not taking more advantage of the markets uncertainty.

For the people screaming CONSTITUTION HILL is back (as we did post-race), yes, he was back to prove the monster he is, but there is a long time between now and March and for as much as a monster he is, he is as sickly. Don’t forget we didn’t see him again after last year’s Christmas Hurdle but for a bad racecourse gallop.

There must be the niggling doubt that the chances of him not getting ill and lining up in March are far slimmer than that of hardier horses (such as GALOP DES CHAMPS (for examples sake)) meaning for us, the sensible bet was the 11/10 to 10/11, when he was on the start line, not a bigger ante-post price for a race a quarter of a year away, relying on a horse who will find the journey to the start line harder than the race itself. We value of limited betting bullets too much.

To be clear, we’re not saying it’s not fun to try work out the Cheltenham puzzle so far ahead of the main event but by focusing on the long term, don’t neglect the opportunities which were present now.

It cannot be overstated how good the racing was this Christmas period and more, the markets were a beautiful for punters to take advantage of the best horses. When last years Cheltenham was a damp squib (races over whelmed with Mullins horses at heavy odds on), this Christmas period provided a gift of both brilliant performances and prices, almost as if punters were owed it after last March.

Let’s dive in.

HEADINE ROUND UP

IMPORTANT DAYS AHEAD

Well, the Champion Hurdle certainly got a shake-up over the Christmas period.

We covered CONSTITUTION HILL earlier in the week after his winning comeback in the Christmas Hurdle, and that obviously implicates the chances of LOSSIMEOUTH for the big race in March as well,

SIR GINO then went and destroyed BALLYBURN by bolting up in the Wayward Lad, all but ruling him out of hurdling unless something happens to his stablemate,

and then we got Sunday’s Neville Hotels Hurdle:

Pre-race, Patrick Mullins said that STATE MAN would pay for Santa’s presents, Christmas dinner, and the New Year holiday, which is so unbelievably bold for a jockey so closely associated with the Willie Mullins yard.

But, as is often the case with such great expectation in racing, it was so unbelievably wrong as BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD bolted up by 30 winding lengths.

It was a weird yet brilliant spectacle leaving nearly every ran with questions left unanswered such namely ‘is that true form?’.

Let’s dissect the race.

When we’re so used only seeing Aidan O’Brien run pacemakers in summer Classics, Gordon Elliott did something very similar on Sunday!

KING OF KINGSFIELD set a ferocious tempo for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD to cling on to his coattails for a nice sling hot to the lead and and when she wanted it, all while the 2/5-shot STATE MAN sat in third in a different postcode.

The pace was so quick at the start that STATE MAN’s jumping faltered and BRIGHTERDAYAHEAD came into her own over the obstacles - she was very slick.

Ruby Walsh thought they went too quick from the front and to do that to such a solid horse in STATE MAN was quite “incredible”.

As much as the performance was good, the post-script was disappointing.

Yes, the Mares’ Hurdle was back in the headlines again. In the changes announced for the upcoming 2025 Cheltenham Festival, one area that was left untouched was the mares’ programme. It was contentious, but the Mares’ Hurdle and Chase remained as they were. And as if this were bound to happen, we now have two mares in the two-mile hurdling division that would be outstanding additions to the Champion Hurdle.

It’s not an easy one to solve.

If you prevent mares from running in the Mares’ Hurdle if they have won an open Grade 1, then you’ll get the problem of mares being campaigned conservatively through the season. If you make the race a 0-150 handicap, you’re ruining the magic of having Graded races at jump racing’s Olympics. If you prevent mares rated over 150 from running in the race, you could have a mare rated 151 who wouldn’t be able to run and yet they would have no chance in the Champion Hurdle.

Although we understand why Eddie and Michael O’Leary are going to target the Mares’ Hurdle (they pay the bills after all), we think RIGHTERDAYSAHEAD should be running in the Champion Hurdle.

GALLOPING CHAMPS, NEW AND OLD

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. He was pretty epic in the Savills Chase wasn’t he?

The market told a story in the days leading up to the Savills Chase as FACT TO FILE drifted and the two-time Gold Cup winner came into odds-on and bellied the theory that he’d be another horse to pull up under the dark cloud over Mullins’ yard.

And, well, the performance really delivered. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS was off the bridle before FACT TO FILE, and he was there to be shot at, but the toughest jumps horse around found more when it was required to win. Very smart. We don’t need to add more, other than the fact that it was a beautiful sight.

But, on the same day over at Newbury, THE NEW LION put in a very notable performance to win the Challow Novices’ Hurdle.

REGENT’S STROLL was too keen (plus Pauls horses aren’t running that well) and BILL JOYCE ran his race, but that shouldn’t take away from the exhibition from THE NEW LION.

Both Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton were really bullish on their chances pre-race, but the market sided with the over-whelming hype from Ditcheat who claimed this lad was the only newcomer in the yard with true ‘star’ quality. To be fair, we listened to that too.

In the immediate aftermath, having been relatively quiet in the lead-up to the race, the nice comments relating to THE NEW LION started to come out in their bucket loads, and it doesn’t take much for Darren Yates to get excited by one.

And in fairness, you have to give this horse the utmost respect going forward because he won a nice Grade 1 without coming off the bridle. That puts him in the upper echelon of novice hurdlers this season and firmly in the picture for Cheltenham making the Turners Novices’ Hurdle an unmissable race this season.

He’ll go there with a good chance at 3/1, while POTTERS CHARM (who won the Formby) will also head straight to the race. Add the likes of JASMIN DE VAUX and maybe KOPEK DES BORDES to the race and we could be in for a nice contest, but at this stage, it looks like the British have the best of it.

Cheltenham for the British is a rather different picture to the one painted this time last year.

CHRISTMAS EYE-CATCHERS

KOAPEY – NEWBURY 12.37 (28th)

For a while, it looked like KOAPEY was going to win the introductory hurdle at Newbury on Challow Novices’ Hurdle Day. In the end, PESO (who the O’Neills like) chased him down and won by a distance. But, Warren Greatrex saw plenty of positives from the run of his horse and he’s one to keep on side going forward.

He clearly has a very high cruising speed and he still finished over three lengths ahead of the third, IN LIMBO, so he ran a good race. He’ll be interesting going forward as he could get in off a nice handicap mark.

BILL JOYCE – NEWBURY 14.55 (28th)

We’re really starting to like BILL JOYCE, and he could be a big player in the Albert Bartlett if they head down this route. He was up in the van all the way and he stayed on nicely despite knowing the race win was gone. WENDIGO sat right off the pace and picked up off the strong tempo, so to only be beaten by three-quarters of a length is impressive. Connections surely know he won’t win a Turners, and he has the stamina to make all over 2m4f, so if he heads to a Bartlett, he should have a good chance.

RISK ON

No bumper previews today as the markets have been smashed up by two hot fave’s (ROCK SENSATION is rumoured too be very smart and Dan Skelton’s KEOPS DES BORDES’ point form has been well franked), so we have not much interest in taking on with money, despite some others in the race owning better pedigree’s.

NO bets today, there will be several tomorrow.