Equinties - Thinkin' of Aintree

Gm Equinauts

We tipped a Henrietta Knight horse yesterday which, in all honesty, we were quite nervous about.

Every big racing fan knows who Henrietta Knight is but if you’re very new to racing and have only heard of her now as the new trainer with a 3% strike rate, then let us illuminate your racing knowledge by telling you she is a total NH legend, made famous for training jumps superstar BEST MATE to land the Gold Cup three-timer in ‘02, ‘03 and ‘04.

When she retired in 2012 she continued to use her expertise by helping other trainers, think Hendo, improve the jumping technique of their jumpers.

‘So what the bloody hell has happened to her since her training come back?’ - we hear you ask!

God knows. She’s only had two winners from 105 runners across both codes (you’ll appreciate why we were nervous to tip her horse yesterday. Luckily the horse ran as well as we though he would and placed at 10’s, but still no win).

Her late husband, champion NH jockey Terry Biddlecombe, was a fundamental part of the set up when they were flying. He died in 2014. Was he the reason for Henrietta Knight’s success? Quite possibly and that would be sad, as we imagine she desperately misses him as any wife would when losing their life partner.

Another theory might be Henrietta Knight is training her horses on the track, like a 90’s cycling coach would using road racing to get the team fit, and being kinder on them at home. They say less is more with horses but, it’s as if Knight’s leaving them stood in a field doing f all.

If it is the latter, and she is taking it easy on the horses, then her squad will eventually come into form…

And we think that time is perhaps now. Of her last 8 runners, Knight’s had four placed at big odds and one winner in MOTAZZEN at 4’s. It’ll be nice to see the NH legend back in the winners enclosure.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

THINKIN’ OF AINTREE?

JP McManus will want to get his hands back on the Grand National. After tasting recent success in the contest with I AM MAXIMUS, and with the sheer volume of staying chasers he has at his disposal, he has a right chance at winning the race again. But with who?

Last year’s winner, of course, has to be on the agenda, but could INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN be that horse instead?

He finished out the back of the TV in the John Durkan in a race that didn’t suit him at all, and his next start is likely to be the Savills Chase at Christmas if the ground allows it.

Trainer Gavin Cromwell said: "The plan is to run Inothewayurthinkin in the Savills. I thought he ran okay in Punchestown, he jumped really well. When he turned in, the front ones quickened away, but he kept going all the way to the line. He got a little bit tired but two and a half miles would be his minimum and the step up in trip will be a big help. "It's a concern with the forecast and the ground. He'll definitely want an ease in it or potentially he might not run."

The famous punter is also set to have FACT TO FILE in the race who will be much shorter in the market because he will have a stronger chance of winning. INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN was beaten by 30 lengths on his sole start at Leopardstown last season as he was being plotted towards the Kim Muir, and he really benefitted from the step up to 3m2f from 2m5f. He will be much harder to plot for a handicap like the Grand National than last season, but it won’t be impossible.

He’s a Grade 1 horse who could well get down to a mark of 155 from his current rating of 158, and two poor runs could well see him drop down a few pounds. If that’s the case, you’d have to think he could be a National runner, and a potential National winner as well.

Now, of course this is us speaking out loud with our tin foil hat on, but McManus has to plot these horses to a few different places and Aintree could be the route.

WHACKING DOWN A STATEMENT

As expected with this disastrous current dry spell we are having (we’ve had good ground every where for weeks now – it makes punting so tough), Patrick Neville has confirmed that he will in fact now supplement THE REAL WHACKER for the King George on Boxing Day. That’s another nice horse to add to the field and he’s a different animal on good ground.

Neville immediately said after the Charlie Hall that the King George could be the race for him, though there was a small glimmer of hope that he could run in the Betfair Chase at one stage. Bad ground ruled that out, so it’s full steam ahead to Kempton, a race that he ran in last year but was beaten fairly comfortably. On his chance, Neville said: “He’s in good form and he’ll probably run next week in the King George.

“The weather forecast and everything is coming right and he’s in great form, so why not?

“I didn’t enter him originally as we were going a different route, but with the ground the way it is, we’ll give it a go.”

We’ve said this recently, but it’s worth mention again purely owed to the fact that we were worrying about the King George at one stage this year, but now the race is turning into a nice one.

A LOOK AHEAD

There are some tasty handicaps at Ascot on Saturday, but we’ve decided to put the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle under the microscope because it looks like a belter.

BE AWARE and DYSART ENOS, the 2-3 from the Greatwood Hurdle, share favourtism currently.

The former has gone up 7lbs and the latter has gone up 4lbs, so will that make a difference? DYSART ENOS was quite keen and fresh at Cheltenham in November, so a run will help her settle down, and the handicap experience will be invaluable. As for BE AWARE, Dan Skelton was very complimentary of him post-race and the scope to his ceiling is unknown. This has been a plan.

KABRAL DU MATHAN is also a huge unknown as he’s three from three so far, two of them for Paul Nicholls. We said he was very impressive at Kempton last month and we also said we could see him being a graded horse in time. He looks quite good, but this is his first big-field handicap.

The flashiest horse in the field will be SECRET SQUIRREL with his big blonde mane, and he’s has shown plenty of ability to match his looks. He’s only had two runs in handicaps, one of them was at Sandown in April and the other saw him finish a fine third on seasonal debut at Ascot last month. He’s still unexposed and he has JERIKO DU REPONET form, though that form line hasn’t worked out too well recently.

The only one making his seasonal reappearance is FAVOUR AND FORTUNE. Last seen winning the Ayr Scottish Champion Hurdle, he brings some of the best form to the table. Alan King won this race with TRITONIC a couple of years ago (who, at this point in time, is set to line up again) but he’d had a couple of prep runs before that – so you’d have to trust FAVOUR AND FORTUNE is fit and ready first time up, will be a tough ask.

King’s other entry and previous victor, TRITONIC, is bottom of the market at 50/1. Tom Cannon is currently jocked up on both him and FAVOUR AND FORTUNE. You’d imagine the 50’s about TRITONIC would be quickly mopped up should he decide to steer him.

 Gary Moore and his team will be going the rain dance all week in a hope the ground turns soft for their runner SALVER. He put in a heroic effort last time at Newbury in the Gerry Fielden on ground that would have been too quick for him. It looks like that unseasonal faster ground will be present again which will no doubt upset his chances here but he’s a top, top horse and will be a leading contender should there be rain between now and race day.

The same ground reasoning can be placed upon GO DANTE, while STEEL ALLY has shown some form on good and good to soft previously. He has the LUMP SUM form from the Welsh Champion Hurdle and he won nicely over 2m4f lto on soft – can he drop back in trip and go well?

Of the rest, FIERCELY PROUD was plotted towards the Greatwood Hurdle but his prep was interrupted by being withdrawn at the Cheltenham October meeting and then falling at Ascot. He should have better fitness ahead of this weekend and it was a fine run in the Greatwood. He’s not out of this.

Verdict: Like Gary Moore, but just for punting’s sake, we’re praying rain comes soon as we can’t survive betting on good ground much longer – it throws up odd results. SALVER would be the selection should conditions turn soft but it’s highly unlikely we’re going to get that. We’ll wait to see what the weather does before trying to pick one.

RISK ON

We are punting live at Newbury today and will post out bets on X @equinties

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