Equinties - 100 done

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BGP Capital
November 29, 2023

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Let’s dive in.

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HEADLINE ROUND UP

100 DONE

Racing’s widespread petition to raise action against the government's plan to introduce affordability checks to racing fans finally hit 100,000 signatures yesterday evening.

Most in racing gave this a big push and it’s nice to see it finally it’s over the line, even if it did take longer than it should have done. The milestone now means parliament will consider this petition for a debate.

Look, let’s face facts. It’s a start. It’s initiated an argument in favour of a disgruntled market - us. But it doesn’t stop here. At the end of the day, this is now to potentially be debated in parliament and even if it gets that far, we could be on the wrong side of the decision.

When the dust is settled - what do we do with the bookmakers who are pushing for the more fixed margin, casino style business model? They are making it very difficult for punters to enjoy the sport at the moment in pursuit of banker profit.

Now, don’t us wrong, we have always said that better KYC procedures are a good thing as human nature means people who might not necessarily be able to afford betting do it anyway, but some of the spurious requests put put out by bookmakers under their AML banner is quite frankly step too far. It’s easy for them to do mind you, they hold the cards.

This petition won’t stop them doing acting in that way. That’s down to the Gambling Commission and CEO Andrew Rhodes to get their act together and sort. The next step is to kick them into a better gear.

RECOVERY ROAD

SLATE LANE, Saturday’s impressive winner of the Betfair “Serial Winners” Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle, has suffered a career-ending tendon injury. 

The Paul Byrne-owned five-year-old picked up his fourth consecutive success on the weekend having won at 4/9, 1/3 & 1/2 since the end of June for Emmet Mullins. Despite his progressive nature, Mullins confirmed that he struck into himself and the trainer knew he was in trouble as soon as he saw the horse in the parade ring.

"I suppose through a bit of experience and seeing it once before a few years ago, I knew in the parade ring when I saw his leg and saw a bit of bubbling and frothing coming from the tendon, that the tendon sheath was compromised,” said Mullins.

“I did an interview with Matt Chapman on ITV and straight after it I turned around and saw the cut on the horse's leg, before I even got to his tail, and I nearly puked.

"Looking back on the race I would be fairly sure he didn't do the injury at the last, or the second-last. It was possibly further back. It's fairly unbelievable that he still managed to get to the line in front.” 

A FIRST

The first disqualification to a winning ride since the BHA’s new whip rules were brought in earlier this year has finally happened as MIXEDWAVE was stripped of last week’s Market Rasen success due to his rider, Alex Edwards, using the whip 16 times – nine more than the permitted allowance - during the contest. 

This disqualification of a winning ride is the first in nearly 8000 races since the new rules were introduced and the Class 4 handicap chase on November 23rd has now been given to POST CHAISE of Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero, who finished a short-head behind in second. Furthermore, Edwards has received a 24-day ban and will miss most of December.

POST CHAISE backers… don’t go spending your winners just yet. Enough time has elapsed post-race for the bookmakers to not pay out.


FIGHTING FIT

A quick mention goes out to superstar CONSTITUTION HILL who is primed and ready for his seasonable debut this weekend. It looks like he’ll have a travel companion too in SHSIKIN:

Here is Nico purring over CONSITITUTION HILL after recent work:

YOUNG BLOOD

Two stand out fave’s for todays bumpers:

15.35 WETHERBY

Another mares only bumper to read today - anything can happen with these girls. We landed the W with LUNAR DISCOVERY in this race last year and this year there are some pedigree’s which catch the eye.

First up is AUDACIOUS ANNIE who was described as a ‘promising youngster’ in Jamie Snowden’s stable tour. She’s by new sire JACK HOBBS who has had mixed results in this sphere with his first runners, but the dam side is brilliant. This girl is out of ANNIE’S ANSWER making her a half to Graded and Cheltenham winner YOU WEAR IT WELL. 5 of 6 half siblings are novice winners - that’s very good going.

Henry Daly is a good trainer. He is 2 from 6 in bumpers here which is telling. He is repped by MOONLIT POTTER who, at first, looks moderately bred until you look deeper into her family. If you go back far enough through the dam’s you’ll find the mighty DENMAN! The stats and blood for this girl have forced books to close the ew value.

GIVER THE HOLLIE failed to win a point and ran poorly in her bumper. Not as nicely bred as the forefront of the market either. She’ll be fit and trying but should be one to take on.

SEA THE DAY is a half to FEEL THE PINCH who has found a new vein of form since joining Robbie Llewellyn’s yard. Her other half BILLAMS LEGACY is a bumper winner too. Her sire is SCORPION who has tendency to produce horses with screws loose. Can’t be trusted but she should have more ability than Fergal’s other runner, GIVER THE HOLLIE.

MACMOLLY ran terribly in her first bumper. She might come on for the run but she’d need to. Not badly bred and if she hadn’t of run, she’d be on the shortlist.

LADY HALETH is moderately bred dam side but her sire DUNADEN does bring some hope of a good run as he can produce nice flat stayers (think RANCH HAND).

NO CAN SEE is well bred at 25/1, related to lots of winners inc. MR ADJUDICATOR. Trainer struggles for winners though. Will either win or pull up.

Like NO CAN SEE, SKY’S YOUR LIMIT better bred than her price suggests (33’s) making this bumper, on pedigree only and without any info on the horses, very deep and tough to read.

Verdict: Bar Saturday’s NAP, this newsletter has been taking on shortie fave’s in search for over priced pedigree’s. AUDACIOUS ANNIE is too well bred to take on today and she is the verdict with the danger being Daly’s. AA is owned by Newcastle Falcons owner Semore Kurdi who also owns MELLIFICENT and MIGHTY MOTH who both have been bumper bets for us last season. He clearly likes targeting them so you can be sure ANNIE is ready for today.

15.45 HEREFORD

JACKPOT DES BORDES has been smashed, and rightly so, he’s trained by Nicholls who has been absolutely cleaning up in these races the last few weeks. Proper French pedigree with some Graded winners in the family tree - nothing to dislike.

FRENCH SYMPHONY reps Pauling who has been doing well in bumpers this season when he has the right ammunition. This las is a half to Graded winner SUPRISE PACKAGE but was a quarter of the price of Nicholls’ runner at 30k. Definitely one to follow.

JJ has had a wild time in bumpers this month -his yard clearly targeting them. This lad is slow on the dam side so might get done for speed in this race but will be staying on out of sight from the picture in your screens. One for a lot later down the line (we think).

THE GREY MAN is reasonably bred albeit by new sire DARTMOUTH. Will be winning races but probably not this one. Place claims.

The rest can’t win.

Verdict: The market is shouting for the 120k JACKPOT DES BORDES. His half IDEAL DES BORDES is highly thought of at Sevenbarrows for Nicky Henderson. We have no desire to take him on or bet him. Could be an on the bridle distance job…the betting suggests that anyway. Paul is on a hat trick for the race as per stats.

TODAYS BEST STATS

A couple of trainers going for hat tricks today. JJ in the 12.20 has won this race in ‘16 and ‘19. Goes for three in a row with MAGIC SEVEN. Big Paul Nicholls is going for a hat trick in the Hereford bumper with JACKPOT DES BORDES 15.45.

Fergal is clocking mileage to take a couple to Kelso, he has a near 1 in 3 strike rate when travelling this far. His best chance seems to be YOUNG BUSTER in the 13.00, he has a 50% strike rate in these races at Kelso.

RISK ON

Monday and Tuesday with no winners and people lose their minds. Guess what, it’s another hard day today.

Bar the below incredibly speccy pedigree play (do not back if you’re going to be upset he trails out the back for his debut over fences) it’s a watching day.

We will be at both Newbury days this week and there will be good horses to bet there. This newsletter landed a big treble last year.

13.15 NORMY KNIGHT

Pedigree bet here. Not sure if this lad will get a nice quiet intro first time over hurdles but his pedigree vs the field makes him too big at 12’s. If he drifts markedly before the off, leave. Play this one late and watch the market. The Skelton horse is fresh from Germany having raced over shorter, I’M TOO TIRED the likely winner, STAR TURN not bred for this, neither YORKSTONE, making NORMY KNIGHT value. Small play only based on Skelton’s horse taking waaaay too much of the market.

A horse to watch/track and not bet (stable form) is THE VILLAGE WAY for Dan Skelton in the 14.25. He won this race last year with PEMBOKE and sends what appears to be on paper, another good one. THE VILLAGE WAY is a half to the very good CRAMBO.

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