Equinties - he is French (and back)

Gm Equinauts

Christmas is all but 6 days aways. No, we’re not talking about the 25th, we’re talking about Boxing Day obviously and the markets are moving already…

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

HE IS FRENCH (AND BACK!)

December 26th, 2023 feels like a long time ago. Well, it was nearly a whole year ago, so that checks out, but in the immediate aftermath of the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, we all thought IL EST FRANCAIS was the next big thing. Paul Nicholls even burdened him with a comparison to KAUTO STAR (classic Nicholls), that was a big weight to carry.

And look, visually it was sublime with the form of the race working out okay; HERMES ALLEN, a Grade 1-winning novice hurdler, was 11 lengths back and the likes of GIOVINCO and MARBLE SANDS couldn’t go the gallop.

But, it’s been somewhat of a downward spiral since.

Of his three subsequent starts, he’s been beaten out of sight, won a Grade 3, and then pulled up on his most recent start.

That latest effort put a big question mark on whether he would turn up to Kempton for the King George, his year-long target, as Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm were getting some tests done.

Punters prone to explore racing across the channel might suggest that the yard have been under a bit of a cloud as of late. Don’t forget, George brought over hype horse KLOTH OF UTOPIA in November who was well and truly thumped at odds on – we know for a fact that none of the British trainers with runners in the race thought they could beat him. The yard form did stink.

The racing world got confirmation yesterday that IL EST FRANCAIS will in fact come over the British channel to Kempton Park, adding to an already fascinating race.

On his late entry, George said: "The horse is in great form. Everything has gone swimmingly since his last race and he worked nicely on Tuesday. He’s due to school tomorrow (Friday) but for the time being it looks like we’ll be heading to Kempton and it’s all very exciting.

"There was no underlying problem as to what happened and the horse is in great shape now and in great health. He worked well on Tuesday and all the scopes were clean afterwards.

"We know that he loves Kempton and a fast, flat track on good ground and going righthanded, so we’re looking forward to getting him there."

Look, we love to hype up races if they are good, and we are well within our right to do so here because the King George is now shaping up into a solid contest with the money certainly shouting for the French raider – but that money is brave and make big excuses for his recent efforts.

They said they have found no issue with him after Auteuil, which is a small worry. Fine, horses are complex animals, but at the same time, when a horse of that ability runs like a drain (on more than one occasion), there has to be a little issue? Maybe, running 3m3f on very soft French ground isn’t his bag? On pedigree it says it shouldn’t be a problem but there are always anomalies in life. Let’s not forget, soft in France is tres different to soft over here.

Our view? We thought he looked very, very good last year and perhaps he is really track and going sensitive. If he’s bouncing at home (with the yard out of their bug spell), we shan’t be taking him on.

Either way, his presence makes the Boxing Day feature a great race. We will LOVE it if we have IL EST FRANCAIS vs GAELIC WARRIOR to look forward to, but we’ll settle for just one as his inclusion alone makes the race so much more interesting!

And as always in racing, any opinion goes, not everyone will get a return on it but that’s what big races should be about!

GIN-GO?

As things stand, CONSTITUTION HILL is going to the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Nicky Henderson has kept his updates to the point with the media, and even owner Michael Buckley went on the Unbridled podcast with some bullish comments.

We’ve read into these types of comments too many times before, but there’s further news to back up the well-being of CONSTITUTION HILL. And that news, with our tin foil hat on, comes through SIR GINO as he is likely to make his chase debut over Christmas in the Grade 1 Wayward Lad.

A Nicky Henderson-trained novice chaser starting off their chasing career in a Grade 1 – he’s been on the brandy!

Bullish though.

There are no quotes to back this up, but in an article on The Sun website, sources reported that the horse has “schooled impressively over fences at Seven Barrows this morning (Wednesday), and he is now being lined up for a crack at the Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase on December 27”.

As we’ve said before, if CONSTITUTION HILL is okay, there’s no point running SIR GINO against him. The Donnellys also have STATE MAN, and they don’t want to be beaten by CONSTITUTION HILL with both of their horses.

Furthermore, Henderson has been notably bullish about SIR GINO’s schooling over fences at home in the past.

Please let this happen. If CONSTITUTION HILL and SIR GINO both line up at Cheltenham, we will have history-making races!

15.05 GRADE 2 NOEL NOVICES’ CHASE

We have a race to preview from Ascot today, and it’s an intriguing four-runner Grade 2 over 2m3f. JOHNNYWHO heads the market having bolted up at Carlisle on chase debut two starts ago.

He beat BUGISE SEAGULL and CHERIE D’AM that day, the latter of which has won a Listed mares’ novices’ chase since. He underperformed in the John Francome subsequently, but the form with THE JUKEBOX MAN is solid.

RARE EDITION also won on chase debut at Uttoxeter when just beating RAMBO T, a steady improver for Olly Murphy. That form is below what JOHNNYWHO has done and he couldn’t win off 137 lto. He probably needs to improve.

PERSONAL AMBITION, on the other hand, has some very interesting form. As a novice hurdler, he showed some smart form when beating JANGO BAIE in the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle (when receiving weight) before Pauling fired him into a Grade 1 at Aintree.

He also beat the other Countrywide Park Holms horse, JINGKO BLUE, on debut at Warwick which looks like good form and returning to a slightly longer trip should suit.

MARK OF GOLD completes the field. He’s been kept active with two runs on the Flat and one hurdle run since the end of September, but this is his debut over fences. On ratings, he doesn’t have too much to find, but he prefers slower ground and could be getting handicapped. More, he is by GOLDEN HORN who is a brilliant sire but tends to produce smaller type so maybe this lad should stick to hurdling? We’ll see.

Verdict: We just can’t get behind the recent form of PERSONAL AMBITION when getting beat up by bloody TEDLEY at Newbury. It’s a lazy fave tip but we think JOHNNYWHO is the one to beat and should win.

RISK ON

Two faves beat yesterday (one posted on X), today we like at an even shorter price:

12.20 DAZZLELIKETHIS

Looks the likely winner with the second fave EBSELYSEES needing faster ground. A pedigree play on a fave here, ticks all the betting boxes.

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BUMPER

ASCOT

A great bumper here featuring many last time out winners.

MONEYGARROW was a previous winning bumper selection last time out and despite looking very green, looked equally very talented. He is by SHANTOU (RIP) and out of LAREN, making him a full brother to Listed winner MINELLA CROONER. With improvement expected, he’s the one to beat.

WINDBENEATHMYWINGS has already race in three bumpers, but over in Ireland for Patrick Flynn who obviously then sold him to Pipe’s yard. An okay pedigree with some top flat blood dam side, we do think despite his winning experience in Ireland he’s one to take on and is taking too much of the market at 7/2.

BLUES SINGER might have needed the blow lto when bumping into a Honeyball winner lto because before that he did look quite impressive at Kempton. By NH super sire BLUE BRESIL, he could be anything.

FRESH PERSPECTIVE won a weak bumper last time at Uttoxeter but has a proper flat pedigree meaning he could find the improvement needed to go close here.

DOCTOR BLUE hails from a yard who love winning bumpers. A proper pedigree, the only thing to knock is he might have wanted the ground a little slower.

IT’S TOP is another last time out winner for a yard in form. The dam’s side is a bit weak with a lack of winner but he is by a proper sire in IT’S GINO. A point and bumper winner, he’s unbeaten but this race features horses like nothing he’s faced before. He needs to step up. A bit too short at 12’s anyway.

STEP AHEAD is an interesting runner for Don Cantillon who is a very charismatic owner, breeder and trainer who likes to gamble his own (usually good) horses. This horse is very well bred, by super sire WALK IN THE PARK and out of Don’s Listed winning mare AS I AM. His half brother BOLD VISION didn’t do anything but after one promising bumper second, he already looks one to follow and is way too big here at 12/1.

SWINGIN SAFARI and TENNESSE TANGO are two previous bumper winners for this newsletter, the latter at 12/1! TT is nicely bred with that all important FAME AND GLORY blood as dam sire. If he has improved, he should go well but word is he’s still a big raw baby. SWINGIN SAFARI only just got up last time out and he needs to really improve to be in the mix today - this race is warm.

Of the others, GLANCE AT MIDNIGHT is nicely bred and related to loads of nice bumper winners. He is massively over priced at 66/1.

Verdict: This is an incredibly warm bumper featuring many previous bumper winners for this newsletter. There are too many nice pedigree’s to choose from! The fave looked good, STEP AHEAD has a value price because no one knows who the trainer is, TENNESSE TANGO is bred to be useful here and even GLANCE AT MIDNIGHT at 66/1 has the pedigree to be in the mix if ready first time up. It’s definitely a race to make a note of. We have no idea who the best horse here could be, our gut is TENNESSE TANGO could be very useful in time so he gets the small vote to try and topple the Skelton fave MONEYGARROW who looked very nice on debut. But for the competition, we’re going with the mad price. It’s Christmas and someone could win big money if he springs a bloody huge surprise!

Competition bet: we’re sticking £50 ew on GLANCE AT MIDNIGHT at 66/1 for someone to win if we pull this outrageous bet off.