Equinties - Morgiana magic

Equinties

Gm Equinauts

Three bumpers today and yes, we’ve deep dived into every single horses pedigree to try and find the winners.

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Now, let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

MARES TO WATCH

On Sunday, Harry Skelton took the mickey in the Cheltenham bumper. On Wednesday, the mickey was taken out of him.

 

That’s because Nico de Boinville stalked him on THAT’S NICE and won as easily as she liked.

Before we talk about the winner, HONKY TONK HIGHWAY finished second and her form is notable. Her debut success under rules at Kempton in March saw her beat RULA BULA, a facile maiden hurdle winner subsequently, and SUNSET MARQUESA, an easy winner at Wincanton yesterday.

As for the winner, THAT’S NICE was described as “could be anything” by Nicky Henderson in his At The Races stable tour earlier this season and that phrase could still be applied after yesterday.

That’s because her jumping could do with some brushing up, but the manner of her victory was impressive, and she has a nice pedigree.

She’s by WALK IN THE PARK and out of JP McManus’ BLOODY MARY (what a name), a horse who finished third in the 2017 Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Right, where does she fit in the grand scheme of the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle?

Well, she is now the 12/1 joint second favourite behind MAUGHREEN (4/1) and alongside MURCIA (12/1), a Kenny Alexander-owned Willie Mullins-trained recruit from France.

She jumped like a chaser (she is a PtP winner) and the form of the second is notable. Therefore, THAT’S NICE should be one to follow!

BURN BABY BURN

Will he, won’t he?

No, this isn’t us talking about CONSTITUTION HILL for the Fighting Fifth, we are looking at the debate over BALLYBURN’s route this season.

Having been entered for the Morgiana, we thought that was Willie Mullins giving us a sign that his most exciting novice hurdler was staying over the smaller flights.

However, we have confirmation that the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle winner will go over fences this season.

 

Look, on the race itself on Saturday, barring a big blow-up or something like a fall, he should win. The race itself isn’t the big thing here, it’s the rest of the season.

Firstly, one can make assumptions that Mullins is very happy with STATE MAN and LOSSIEMOUTH in the potential Champion Hurdle scene this year with BALLYBURN going over fences.

Immediately after his Gallagher win, Mullins said: “That was a Champion Hurdle performance in my book.” So, if he has two horses to sort out the Champion Hurdle division, he’s therefore giving BALLYBURN a free path to take on novice chasing.

The next point to work out is the distance. With no Turners anymore, will he be an Arkle or Brown Advisory type?

Well, he wouldn’t be the typical Brown Advisory horse based on his novice hurdle form. Of Mullins’ Brown Advisory winners, FACT TO FILE is an anomaly because he didn’t go over hurdles, MONKFISH won a Bartlett, and DON POLI won a three-mile novice hurdle before winning the Martin Pipe.

If you remember back far enough, he was debatably a Supreme horse, so he clearly has speed though he is bred like a three-miler. His siblings (NOBLE ENDEAVOR, MINELLA DADDY, PLANET NINE) all won over at least three miles, so he should stay based on his blood.

But, does Mullins have an Arkle horse? Ultimately, not one who is a guaranteed Grade 1 winner.

TULLYHILL went off fav for the Supreme having been less than convincing all season, and he could well be that staying novice chaser this season.

Would ILE ATLANTIQUE step into the Arkle role? At the correct time of writing, only BALLYBURN (5/2) and IMPAIRE ET PASSE (12/1) are shorter than 20/1 for the Arkle from Closutton.

So, if they go down the Arkle route with him, which would make sense considering they have the likes of DANCING CITY, MAJBOROUGH, QUAI DE BOURBON, and even READIN TOMMY WRONG for the Brown Advisory, we could have a hypothetical Arkle in March that consists of BALLYBURN, SIR GINO, INTHEPOCKET, L’EAU DU SUD, FIREFOX, and maybe SLADE STEEL.

That is sexy.

MORGIANA MAGIC

Talk about early Christmas presents... that Morgiana Hurdle on Saturday is pretty tasty.

It’s a clash that we could only dream of at Cheltenham, let alone in November at Punchestown. What’s that saying? It’s all about Cheltenham? You know our feeling towards that opinion.

And you know what, we’re going to preview the race right now. Strike while the iron is hot and all.

So, if they all turn up and race at 14.10 on Saturday, here is what we think.

It’s almost like STATE MAN is the one that people are the least excited about in the Morgiana this weekend. But that is almost the greatest compliment you could give to a horse.

He isn’t flashy, he isn’t the new shiny thing, and we already know everything about him. And yet, he is just a very good 169-rated horse who turns up to the races and consistently… wins!

Paul Townend remains on board and he goes incredibly well at Punchestown (5/5), so this weekend could be the best time to side with him at a backable price.

LOSSIEMOUTH, on the other hand, is this brand-new thing that everyone wants to see wrapped up under the Christmas tree on December 25th.

She’s like the new iPhone that comes out every year. The more established older version is fine and does the job, but yet there is a spicy aura around this new thing because it is… simply new and undiscovered.

 

She gets the mares’ allowance, but one would argue that she still has to improve five pounds based on her career-best effort to date (the Mares’ Hurdle win) in order to challenge an on-song STATE MAN.

She’s clearly very good, and as much as we don’t usually read into jockey bookings too much, Townend is on STATE MAN - he has to be really.

BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD completes an incredible front-three in the betting market, and she has been the apple of Gordon Elliott’s eye for a long time. We speculated that she stayed over hurdles because she jumps like a grandfather clock over fences, but that is unconfirmed.

Of the three, she is race-fit after a win in the Bottlegreen Hurdle earlier this month. She was a bit safe over her final few hurdles at Down Royal 22 days ago, yet she jumped them nicely mid-race and has a lovely engine.

Remarkably, she probably does need to improve, though that race fitness could be key in doing so.

Right, will any of the others make a dent in the already-mentioned three?

WINTER FOG and SIR GERHARD are the next highest-rated at 150.

The former will be race-fit after a good run through the summer while SIR GERHARD is probably a better horse without a run under his belt.

If he continues to drop through the handicap, Mullins might bring him back for a handicap at the Festival. Maybe?

DADDY LONG LEGS was a nice Grade 3 winner two starts ago, though he was put in his place at Down Royal by BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD lto.

He might be the next best of the lot, to be honest.

SMOOTH TOM and NO LOOKING BACK complete the field. They won’t win, and if they do, let’s turn the lights off when we go.

Verdict: We can’t knock STATE MAN but let’s be honest, he won a nothing event in the Champion hurdle last season and his other races have all been workman like. We’re tempted to check out the shiny new iPhone… LOSSIEMOUTH. Visually, she’s only won on the bridle recently so it’s hard to judge just how good she is but we do remember thinking she should go to the Champion hurdle after her demolition job at Cheltenham earlier in January. We cant forget that performance and we think she could serve it up to STATEMAN. We don’t bet Irish racing but it we’ll hang out hats on LOSSIEMOUTH for this.

RISK ON

Gosden’s GAMRAI, arguably the gamble of the day, didn’t look that good yesterday but the word was he was a rocket - perhaps he needed the run?

As for the Joe Tizzard treble, we were on the right horses but simply done by an unfortunate faller. That’s jumps. If you can’t handle it, give up betting.

There great racing on today but it is tough. We like our Chepstow bumper verdict, will have a small ew on that at a huge price, plus:

14.50 PETTY CASH

At 6/1, we think this lad is a solid ew swing in the hope his wind op can improve him because on hurdle form, he’s bang there! Yard in top form too.

BROOKLYN for Boughey should win but has been smashed, we prefered the 6’s last night so will only add current price now to another bet for a bit of lev.

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