Equinties - Christmas racing

Gm Equinauts

A couple of the lads behind this newsletter travelled 5 hours each way to Newcastle yesterday to punt one horse.

Now, don’t get us wrong, it’s very, very fun to go racing and watch your horse race, but that sort of journey, especially this time of year, really isn’t ideal. In fact, it was a total mission.

But they had to go for one sole reason…to be able to get a bet on.

We’re going to take a deep dive next week into how punters, from all walks of life, get bets on (if they can) and get their views on the current state of the game.

Let’s dive in.

HEADLINE ROUNDUP

WELSH NATIONAL 2024

Like the Tingle Creek and like the King George, the Welsh National is one of the biggest races to look forward to over the Christmas period. We did a piece on the the big one and its trial nearly 12 months ago to the day.

Our opening line said: “Having had declarations through for tomorrow’s action yesterday, the Coral Welsh Grand National Trial headlines the action at Chepstow on Saturday. This race is usually worth following with the Welsh Grand National on December 27th in mind…”

And it was a very true statement that got a further boost last year.

Three of the last four winners of the Welsh Nash Trial – NASSALAM (2023), IWILLDOIT (2021), and SECRET REPRIEVE (2022) – went on to win the main race itself and RAMSES DE TEILLEE won the Trial in 2018 before finishing second in the Welsh National.

It’s a pretty mighty feat to achieve as you are asking a horse to run nearly three miles around Chepstow (on usually soft ground) before heading back to Wales roughly 20 days later and running an extra six furlongs on usually deeper ground!

But, it has a great record, and over the last few weeks, we’ve had some updates about the Welsh Grand National.

According to Sam Thomas, his big hope for the race on December 27th is JUBILEE EXPRESS, but he will miss his intended target of the National Trial because he “isn’t quite A1 but the Welsh National is the long-term plan”.

Instead, Thomas is set to run GOOD RISK AT ALL in the Trial, though he has yet to win over three miles in two attempts. He was sent off 9/4 to beat BROADWAY BOY over three miles at Cheltenham last season, however.

On GOOD RISK AT ALL, Thomas said: "Good Risk At All will run on Saturday in the Welsh National trial and he's in really good form. Fingers crossed we can get back on track with him. Iwilldoit will want a lot of rain otherwise we won't run. He doesn't necessarily need a run, we can go straight to the Welsh National. He's got the entry so we can have a little look.”

But what else do we know about the Welsh Grand National itself?

Well, BROADWAY BOY is the favourite, but Willy Twiston-Davies confirmed the race “possibly might come a bit soon after a hard race” and TRELAWNE, who also had a hard race in the Haydock Graduation Chase, is being considered for the contest.

GELINO BELLO hasn’t been seen since January 2023. He is notably entered for both the Trial and the National itself, so is he back? He’s a Grade 1 novice hurdle winner and he won his first two chase starts in 2022.

THE TINGLE CREEK

JONBON, QUILIXIOS, BOOTHILL, EDWARDSTONE, JPR ONE, MASTER CHEWY, SOLNESS, and UNEXPECTED PARTY.

The Tingle Creek looks like a fine renewal this year, though plenty is weighted towards the top of the market.

That’s because JONBON is set to make his second start of the season after winning the Shloer Chase last month. He beat BOOTHILL, EDWARDSTONE, and UNEXPECTED PARTY last time out when doing the donkey work, so you would imagine he has the beating of them

So, can QUILIXIOS or JPR ONE beat him?

Well, firstly, it will be great to see them. QUILIXIOS has had a pretty weird life with fences ever since he took the last fence home with him on his Limerick chase debut.

He’s swung between winning nicely and getting soundly beaten more times than CONSTITUTION HILL has had setbacks, but he is at least in good form currently having beaten MARINE NATIONALE at Naas lto.

On his appearance at Sandown on Saturday, Henry de Bromhead said: “I was very happy with the performance (last month). I thought he jumped great and galloped to the line well and I was delighted with him – it was great to see him back.

“He had a bit of a mixed season last year, so we wanted to see where we were. He answered all our questions really well, we hope he’ll improve for the run as well and the Tingle Creek was an obvious race to have a go at.”

And then there’s JPR ONE who is jocked-up. So, hopefully, that means he goes because the vibes from Joe Tizzard earlier this season were not positive in regards to running any more times before Cheltenham.

These two look like the obvious ones to try and beat JONBON. Can they? Probably not. JONBON is just great, and he’ll be better than he was at Cheltenham last month.

Our final point on the TINGLE CREEK at this stage is this… remember LANGER DAN, Dan Skelton’s plotty Cheltenham horse?

Well, he’s doing the same with UNEXPECTED PARTY. Since he won the Grand Annual by a comfortable two-and-a-quarter lengths, he’s pulled up, finished last, finished 2nd in graduation chase, last in a Shloer, and he’s almost odds-on to be last on the weekend.

Get him down to 140, Dan. He’ll be winning that Grand Annual in no time!

KIA AGAIN

Blimey, Kia Joorabchian really is going for it, isn’t he?

Joorabchian is hellbent on making it into the upper echelons of the breeding game, and the only sure-fire way to do that is by buying everything, an expensive strategy the late Robert Sangster applied when buying all the best yearlings in the early 1970s to start the Coolmore empire.

We’ve seen Amo Racing’s boss reach into his pocket time and time again this year, and he did the same yesterday when going to 4.8 million guineas for YOU GOT TO ME.

First thing to note, she will race as a four-year-old. Joorabchian was initially unsure about keeping her in training because he has a few stallions that she could visit, but she will stay with Ralph Beckett to continue her racing career, one that saw her take home the Irish Oaks this season.

His spending this summer is actually quite interesting, especially when it revolves around a horse like YOU GOT TO ME.

She cost 200,000gns at the October Yearling Sales in 2022, so she has clearly made connections a lot of money, and now Kia is paying a premium for her blood line.

In a time when the cost of living crisis is causing issues in normal life, the bloodstock market coulsn’t care less, no, Kia couldn’t care less and he is single-handedly propping up the market!

To further hammer home Joorabchian’s intent, they bought SWEETY DREAM, the dam of the Group 3 winner ROMANTIC STYLE, for 775,000gns.

On his big purchase, the boss of the boys in purple (yes, we’re coining this nickname now) said: “I don’t think it’s about getting a buzz, we’re trying to do the right thing.

“We’ve got to compete. We’ve been trying to compete for many, many years and we’ve burnt so much cash trying to do it by trying to pick the next 'one'. But why try to pick the next one when you have 'the one'?

“We have four stallions now that could easily fit her. We’ve got Bucanero Fuerte and Persian Force, who we really like and are very happy with, and then King Of Steel is the obvious one. I’m going to try back King Of Steel as much as I can, and the people that back King Of Steel will get my backing back as well.”

Elsewhere, M V Magnier bought BELIEVING for 3 million, the Group 1-winning juvenile VERTICAL BLUE was bought by Resolute Bloodstock for 3.2 million, and BLACKBEARD’s full sister RUN AWAY was bought for 650,000gns by Ecurie des Monceaux.

RISK ON

A winner yesterday in DAYTIME DREAMING, today we like:

12.58 LAND AFAR

Ran well on seasonal debut and can progress to win this poor heat. Evens on exchange and some books, otherwise 10/11 every where.

Other bets will be posted on X @equinties

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