Equinauts - l'Arc Sunday

Gm Equinauts

Not really gm as it’s about midday now but I started this early this morning – it's been a monster newsletter to write. I hope you enjoy it.

Let’s dive in.

Big race previews

15.50 Gr1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

This might annoy those with OCD and want these previews in time order but we’re starting with the big one today, l’Arc. A £4.2 million contest over 12 furlongs for the world’s best racehorses. A full field of 20 go to post in what will be a proper, proper slop fest.

Aidan O’Brien’s LUXEMBOURG is 5 from 6 in his career and tops today's market. Worthy fave, he’s beaten half the field already, ONESTO, VADENI, MISHRIFF, ALENQUER, and BROOME all couldn’t get past LUX at the Gr1 Irish Champion Stakes lto. He’ll never have encountered the likes of today’s ground but he’s won on soft before and he does get a bit of weight off his back with the three-year-old allowance today. The only real question mark is the step up in trip (he’s untested over 1m4f) but that said, he only really got motoring in the last furlong so one would assume he’ll be even better over further.

The seven-race unbeaten ALPINISTA is the next best in the market at 11/2 for Sir Mark Prescott who is breaking his 21-year Paris travel ban to watch his Frankel mare on the big stage.

A proven Group 1 horse at the distance, she holds strong claims for today, though connections feel she is a better horse on firmer ground despite her previous success on softer going.

TORQUATOR TASSO, ALENQUER, and BROOME are three horses returning from last year’s contest.

The former ran to an RPR of 126 to win last year's renewal by three-quarters of a length on heavy ground – he has only won the one race since that day, a weak Group 2 at Hamburg where he was the 13/10 favourite, and was beaten by MENDOCINO, a horse who he reopposes against today, lto in the Gr1 Wettstar Grosser Preis von Baden. He will enjoy the very soft ground today but being drawn in the car park (18) is certainly a negative.

I don’t know why BROOME is running in this, he hasn’t got a hope in hell in this ground and I don’t think ALENQUER is good enough despite handling the slop, that Gr 1 he won earlier this season was fucking shite.

We move on to some of the best horses in this race that may not be suited to the softer conditions.

As we have mentioned in previous newsletters throughout the week, Ted Voute, racing manager to Prince Faisal, said MISHRIFF wouldn’t want “heavy or dead” ground though he did bolt up twice on heavy ground in the early years of his career. Out of stall 17, sporting the first time cheekpieces, connections are bearish on his chance. Yeh stall posi isn’t great but on blood… JUST on blood, I really don’t think the ground is as big a problem as they’re making it out to be. Don’t forget about all the TIGER ROLL chat before he ran in the XC at Cheltenham last year, everyone wrote him off in the heavy going (even the Fat Pikey!) but his blood said he’d be fine in it and he’d have bolted up if his stable mate wasn’t in the race, ruining the party. I think it’s the same for MISHRIFF today – this ground chat just has spiralled out of control when really it shouldn’t be an issue. I think MISHRIFF will run a big race.

Win on heavy in a Gr2 at Deauville:

Japan’s TITLEHOLDER is one that has yet to run on anything softer than good and both his sire and dam were fast ground horses, though his damsire, MOTIVATOR, did win the then-called Gr1 Racing Post Trophy (now Vertem Futurity) and Gr2 Dante Stakes on soft ground.

Now, obviously I don’t follow Japanese racing (there’s enough racing in England) but what I do know is anything the Japanese enter has to be taken very seriously and this lad’s two consecutive Gr1 victories in 2022 sees him top the weight-adjusted rating list by Timeform.

Win lto:

Finally, the two vastly improving three-year-old colts in today’s Arc field are VADENI and WESTOVER.

Jean-Claude Rouget’s son of CHURCHILL, VADENI has done nothing wrong this year, picking up three wins in a row, including the Gr1 Prix du Jockey Club on soft and the Gr1 Coral-Eclipse on good to firm (although MISHRIFF should have won this), showing his versatility on most grounds. Similar to LUX, first-time try at 1m4f is the uncertainty, but he is a very consistent performer and will no doubt run a good race.

WESTOVER, WESTOVER, WESTOVER… I really don’t know what to make of this horse. A massive eye catcher in the Derby, he then absolutely hosed up in the Irish version and I thought ‘here we go…this guy is fucking good’. I had a proper bet on him lto at Royal Ascot thinking he wouldn’t be beat and he just blew up. I think Colin Keane had a shocker too. Couldn’t settle the horse and they went far far too quickly. I actually think Keane is entirely to blame for what happened (Ralph Beckett must agree with me as he’s got Hornby back today) but there is still remains too big a question mark over this horse.

If WESTOVER wins, it’ll give Juddmonte their first win in the Arc since ENABLE in 2018.

Our view: LUXEMBOURG is well fancied today by Coolmore (they like LUX, NEVER ENDING STORY and COVENT GARDEN) and although I’d be cautious with their optimism (as they might just be high from Kyprios’ win yesterday) I can see why they like him. He’s defo the horse to beat. I want to see WESTOVER back but if he goes off like he did at Royal Ascot he’ll get pulled up. ALPINISTA is solid but I think the ground will blunt her speed today and make her beatable. That said, she's hard as nails so I wouldn’t really like to bet against her. TORQATOR TASSO has a chance of retaining his title in these conditions, he just doesn’t stop running. He’s defo not the best horse in the race but he’s probably what you want in these conditions. VADENI is another one who is rock solid.

It’s a tough race, there a lot of good and capable horses, so I wouldn’t put you off a couple of plays but lunch money stakes only (make sure you enjoy the race) but on we’ll hang our hat on is ONESTO. He should be a good ew play in the hope to reverse form with LUX as he steps up in trip. He’s 11’s vs LUX’s 4’s.

13.15 Gr1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere

Starting the day off at Longchamp is the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere for the two-year-olds over seven furlongs, a race that looks to be between the top two in the market.

Aidan O’Brien won this race in 2017 with HAPPILY and he did plant to run THE ANTARCTIC but he’s been a late NR leaving SHARTASH head of the market.

This son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT beat the now two-time Group 1-winning BLACKBEARD three starts ago in the Gr2 Railway Stakes over just the six furlongs at the Curragh, form that has proved to work out well since.

A good third to the runaway LITTLE BIG BEAR in the Gr1 National Stakes nto further improves his form claims for today, though his loss on soft ground lto would have to be a worry for most, I think, from his blood, he’ll love it.

 Our view: SHARTASH should win this.

13.50 Gr1 Prix Marcel Boussac

Next on the card for today is the Gr1 Prix Marcel Boussac for the two-year-old fillies over a mile, a race that has attracted a healthy field of 12 runners.

In what looks like a tight betting contest at the moment, KELINA for Carlos Laffron-Parias, a trainer who won this race back in 2012 with SILASOL, is currently the 7/2 favourite.

By FRANKEL and out of a mare who won on soft, she is looking to make it a hat-trick of successes and has the favourite's chance.

Next in market is Maurizio Guarnieri’s WED, by PROFITABLE (a Group 1 winner on soft), should be able to handle the deeper conditions and she has already placed on good to soft ground earlier in her career – she has been progressing well since her debut in mid-June and she collected Group 2 success lto over seven furlongs. There is nothing to suggest that her progression can’t continue today.

Aidan O’Brien’s NEVER ENDING STORY represents the best of the Irish raiders tomorrow, a horse who finished two lengths behind WED two starts ago in the above-mentioned Prix du Calvados. Despite being held on form, as I mentioned previously, Coolmore fancy this one as one of their three best chances.

Her last win came in July when she just got the better of the now 96-rated ZOINNOCENT, form that shouldn’t be good enough to win here today – O’Brien has a total of four victories in this contest, with Ryan Moore riding two of them to success in 2015 and 2016.

Our view: Coolmore like NEVER ENDING STORY and so do I now.

15.50 Gr1 Prix de l’Opera

45 minutes after l’Arc, the fillies and mares are back on the track for the Prix de l’Opera over the 1m2f distance.

The only place to start for this race is with John and Thady Gosden’s NASHWA at the top of the market – she comes into today off the back of a 66-day break following her Gr1 Nassau Stakes victory lto at Goodwood.

The obvious reason for her break would be the sheer quantity of runs this daughter of FRANKEL has already had in 2022 – five runs, including three Group 1s, in the space of three months is a fair enough task for a relatively fresh three-year-old. She represents the best form coming into the race having already beaten LA PARISIENNE who she reopposes today, it’s just how she will bounce back after two months off.

LA PARISIENNE herself is a very consistent performer having never finished out of the places in all five of her runs. She put in two very good efforts in her last two races and she won’t have any issues with the rain-softened ground – is she the one to bring home the l’Opera for France?

If you are potentially put off by the returning NASHWA then the pair of Coolmore runners may take your fancy at slightly bigger prices.

The shorter-priced runner in the market is ABOVE THE CURVE for Joseph O’Brien. Ryan Moore takes the ride following two consecutive Group successes, one of them being a Group 1 over course and distance – she has seen sustained market support both ante-post and after the declaration stage

This has left Wayne Lordan to get onboard Coolemore’s apparent second string, their Oaks heroine TUESDAY.

She has been a bit out of sorts since that victory at Epsom four months ago – she wasn’t herself when beaten 10l by WESTOVER in the Irish Derby before going on to finish a good second to ALPINISTA in the Yorkshire Oaks and a fair fourth in the Gr1 Prix Vermeille lto.

Today is her race on potentially very soft ground and her first stab over the 1m2f distance, can she return to her Oaks-winning self?

Our view: NASHWA has literally done nothing wrong so I don’t really know how people can oppose her today. I tipped up ABOVE THE CURVE lto from a sun lounger with a pina colada in hand, that was nice. I think she’s the safety net should NASHWA not deliver.

Gr1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp

19 go to post in what is a very competitive but extremely hard Prix de l’Abbaye to work out – because of this, we are going to give you some stats about this year’s renewal.

Adrian McGuinness is 1/1 in this race and he sends last year’s winner A CASE OF YOU back to Longchamp to try and retain his title – since the start of the 2022 turf season the four-year-old by HOT STREAK hasn’t been the same animal as what he was last year (the best he has achieved so far was third in the Gr2 Greenlands Stakes in May) but the softer surface should be right up his street.

Aidan O’Brien is 0-13 in this contest (ouch) and he is represented by the 33/1 shot NEW YORK CITY under Ryan Moore – plenty thought this INVINCIBLE SPIRIT colt was going to be a world beater this year but he has failed to hit those heights and a clear career best would be needed to win today.

Seven of the last 10 winners of this race have been drawn in a single-figure stall – Christophe Soumillion’s mount BERNEUIL (18) and Roger Varian’s MITBAAHY (15) will have to do well to make up for this tough draw.

Both Hollie Doyle and Richard Fahey are yet to strike in the l’Abbaye from this small experience in the race, but they team up with THE PLATINUM QUEEN at the top of the market.

Her two-year-old and fillies’ allowances are a gift from the gods, giving her more than a stone in hand on the rest of her rivals – she has already established herself as a Group 1 horse to be reckoned with, so she must be feared, however, six runs for a juvenile filly in the space of three months could have affected her.

https://twitter.com/SportingLife/status/1568943026415800320 

 Our view: I think I’d be all over MITBAAHY if it wasn’t for his shocking draw, a real slop lover by blood whereas most of the field need quick. TERESA MENDOZO finished a neck 2nd to MITBAAHY lto, she wont mind the ground and she has a great low figure draw. Shes now the pick at 7/1.

Gr1 Prix de la Foret

The final Group 1 this weekend is the Prix de la Foret over seven furlongs and Ralph Beckett’s KINROSS is looking for three in a row under his usual partner of Frankie Dettori.

He dotted up at both York in the Gr2 City Of York and at Doncaster in the Gr2 Park Stakes in his last two starts, with the latter on soft ground – a return to anything like that RPR performance of 122 should see him secure his first Group 1.

Aidan O’Brien’s Guineas filly TENEBRISM has been a tough horse to place this season over both a mile and seven furlongs – her sole 2022 success so far came in the Gr1 Prix Jean Prat over seven furlongs but connections have been adamant to keep trying her over a mile to no avail.

0/4 this year over a mile sees this CARAVAGGIO filly step back down in distance today on ground she has average form on and her pedigree should suggest the cut in the ground will be no issue - can she bounce back to form over what looks to be her best distance?

Jean-Claude Rouget’s FANG is already a course and distance winner this year on soft ground, picking up a victory in the Gr3 Prix du Pin lto.

This success was third-season sire GOKEN’s third-ever Group victory, adding to GO ATHLETICO’s and LIVACHOPE’s successes in 2020 – can the progressive FANG pick up another to add to the catalogue?

And finally, a case could be made to suggest that SANDRINE is overpriced at 10/1.

She beat market leader KINROSS two starts ago at Goodwood, finished a good fifth in the Guineas back in May, ran up behind PROSPEROUS VOYAGE and INSPIRAL in the Gr1 Falmouth Stakes in July, and has Group form on heavy ground – if you can put a line through her last run, she could be an each-way player at 10s

Our view: On form KINROSS is the horse everything needs to beat but I wouldn’t be surprised if NEW ENERGY could reverse their lto form as he was closing well and defo faster at the end. Coolmore didn’t mention her today but on blood, I think TENEBRISM has the best chance. She’ll love the mud today and she’s been mixing it with some fucking good horses this season… this might be her easiest assignment yet.